The NCAA Tournament is three games away from being complete, and we are down to the Final Four. After insane upsets and Cinderella stories, we are left with four blue-blood programs competing to win it all.
On one side of the bracket, Kansas squares up against the Villanova Wildcats. Kansas is the only one-seed to reach the Final Four, and the Jayhawks have lived up to the billing so far in the postseason. It’s easy to see why they made it here.
However, they haven’t faced a true test except for Providence in the Sweet Sixteen. Villanova is the highest-ranked team to play Kansas, and they are coming off of a defensive masterpiece where they allowed only 44 points to the red-hot Houston Cougars.
Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, April 02, 2022 – 06:09 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
The Villanova moneyline is at +170, which means that they have the worst odds to reach the championship game out of all remaining teams. Still, they earned their spot here, and they can go on a run. So, what will it take to upset the Jayhawks?
Play Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
Here are three keys for a Villanova victory on Saturday.
Win on the perimeter
Villanova has one of the best perimeter defenses in the country, and they have a solid average on offense. However, there was a lid on the rim against Houston in the Elite Eight. Neither team could consistently make shots. If either team averaged even 30% from three, this would not have been a close game.
Part of this was because of the defense played, but both teams just found a cold streak as well. Kansas will likely be consistent with their jumpers, so the Wildcats have to pick it up on the other end. Villanova can’t expect to win another game with less than 110 points scored.
More Picks: Villanova vs. Kansas NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks and Betting Preview
The Wildcats have relied on defense all year, but the offense has to step up early in this game. It’s limited Villanova all year, and it can’t happen on the biggest stage in the sport.
Defense wins championships, but the offense will have to do its part. That starts with winning on the perimeter. This can add an extra 9 or 12 points to the total, which will go a long way in this matchup.
Keep Out of Foul Trouble
Villanova’s defense is potent, but it’s miraculous that they’ve played so well while also fouling only 15 times a game. That kind of margin keeps your opponent from getting plenty of free throws, but it also keeps your best players on the floor in key situations.
Villanova isn’t led by a specific star like they have been before, but that doesn’t mean that any player is disposable. They need the rotation to remain available, and the best way to do that is to avoid foul trouble.
More Picks: NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets
This is one of those keys that should be easy to do. After all, Villanova has done this all season. Still, you want to ensure that it happens in this game. Kansas will be looking to play physical and attack the rim, so the Wildcats must remain disciplined.
These two keys will help keep the game close, but the third key will be what swings this game in favor of the underdog Villanova Wildcats.
Limit Kansas’s Massive Runs
Basketball is a game of runs, and Kansas has an offense that is capable of scoring in a hurry. They’ve scored at least 76 points in three of the four NCAA Tournament games this year. That is because they can get hot and dictate the tempo.
Villanova doesn’t have the offense to keep up or go on a deep run, so they have to keep Kansas from one of those game-breaking runs. I’m talking about a 15-2 run in two minutes or a 20-6 run to end the first half. Mini runs will happen, but Villanova has to stop a double-digit run from ending their season.
More Picks: Final Four Predictions: Who Will Play in the NCAA Tournament Championship Game and Why
Villanova has the defense to do this, and Jay Wright knows how to make adjustments in the game. We’ll see if they get it done, but this is the road map for a victorious night by the Wildcats.
Calculators
