Indiana vs. Michigan State Picks and Prediction February 21: Sparty Will Avoid Season Sweep

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Joey Hauser of the Michigan State Spartans passes the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats on November 15, 2022. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

NCAAB Pick: Michigan State ML (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Michigan State ML (-135)
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Michigan State is nearing the NCAA Tournament bubble, so Tom Izzo’s Spartans could really use a home win over No. 17 Indiana on Tuesday in Big Ten action.

Which side of the 2-point spread (or short moneyline) has the best value as our NCAAB pick at the top-rated online books? We also have a play on the total. 

Remember, fans from the Great Lake State who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Michigan betting sites.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans 

Tuesday, February 21, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Breslin Center 

Rather unusually, there’s just one Big Ten game around college basketball on Tuesday night, and it’s No. 17 Indiana visiting Michigan State with ESPN having the telecast. 

On Jan. 22, Indiana was a 4.5-point home favorite at the top-rated books and beat Michigan State 82-69. IU star Trayce Jackson-Davis was unstoppable with 31 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks – he was 10-for-20 from the floor and 11-for-13 from the free-throw line.

Trey Galloway had 17 points, and no other starter had more than two points. Joey Hauser led MSU with 22 points, but the Spartans made only four three-pointers.  

Indiana leads the all-time series 71-58, but Michigan State has won 23 of the last 25 games at the Breslin Center dating back to the 1991-92 season. The home team is 26-10 ATS against NCAAB odds in the past 36 meetings. 

Hoosiers Eyeing Double-Bye 

Indiana (19-8, 10-6 Big Ten) still has a shot at the Big Ten regular-season title, but that’s unlikely so goal No. 2 would be to finish in the Top 4 and earn a double-bye in the conference tournament, and IU controls its destiny to do that. 

Coach Mike Woodson’s team is 9-2 in its past 11 following a 71-68 home win over Illinois on Saturday. The Illini were missing their best player in Terrence Shannon Jr. yet led nearly the entire way. Indiana erased a nine-point deficit over the final 12 1/2 minutes. Illinois’ RJ Melendez could have forced overtime with a 3-pointer at the buzzer, but it was off the mark. 

Hoosiers star Trayce Jackson-Davis had 26 points and 12 rebounds. His dunk with six seconds left was the game’s final basket. TJD’s 26 points gave him 2,081 for his career, passing Woodson on the school’s all-time list.

Indiana's All-Time Leading Scorers

  1. Calbert Cheaney (1989-93) ..................... 2,613
  2. Steve Alford (1983-87) .............................. 2,438
  3. Don Schlundt (1951-55) ............................ 2,192
  4. A.J. Guyton (1996-2000) .......................... 2,100
  5. Trayce Jackson-Davis (2019-present) ... 2,081
  6. Mike Woodson (1976-80) ......................... 2,061

It was TJD’s 21st career 20-point and 10-rebound game. In Big Ten play, Jackson-Davis leads the league with 22.1 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 3.3 blocked shots per game. His rebounding rate is the highest in conference play in the last 25 seasons. Yet he probably won’t win Big Ten Player of the Year honors, Purdue’s Zach Edey will as he’s the National Player of the Year betting favorite.

Indiana Has TJD and Now JHS Too

Freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino did make a handful of big mistakes Saturday but finished with 13 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. He scored four points in the final 1:20, including the go-ahead free throws with 30 seconds to play. JHS ranks third among all freshmen in the Big Ten in scoring (12.6 points per game), second in assists (4.1), fourth in rebounds (4.0), and fifth in made 3-pointers per game (1.3). He is second in the league averaging a combined 20.8 points, rebounds, and assists per game.  

Indiana's 10 conference wins are its most since the 2015-16 season when it had 15. ESPN has IU as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and CBS Sports as a No. 4.  

Senior guard Xavier Johnson hasn’t played since Dec. 17 due to an injury and remains out indefinitely. The Hoosiers are 2-7 ATS in their past nine road games. 

First Home Game Since Shooting 

At 16-10 overall and 8-7 in the Big Ten, Michigan State has some wiggle room in terms of the NCAA Tournament bubble but not a lot. ESPN has Tom Izzo’s team as a No. 7 seed in the Big Dance and CBS Sports as a No. 8 seed. The Spartans haven’t missed the Big Dance since 1997 – not including the canceled 2020 version – and surely will make it again. A win here should all but clinch an at-large bid. 

It should be fairly emotional at the Breslin Center as it’s the first men’s basketball game there since last week’s mass shooting on campus. The Spartans postponed last Wednesday’s home game because of it but played Saturday at rival Michigan and lost 84-72. In a very classy move, the Michigan band played the Spartans' alma mater before the game while Crisler Arena was dimly lit with green and white lights from LED wristbands that were given to fans. 

Game Against Michigan Provides Insight

That final score was misleading as Michigan scored the game’s final 12 points. Michigan State led for more than 25 minutes overall and pushed its lead to six points, 63-57, after a driving layup from AJ Hoggard and a 3-pointer from Joey Hauser with 8:23 to play in the game before then fading.  

The Spartans were outrebounded 38-25, and Michigan had 14 offensive rebounds and scored 13 second-chance points. The Wolverines scored 30 points in the paint, including 20 in the second half. Hauser scored 20 points to lead Sparty. When they lose the rebounding battle, they usually lose the game. That’s the Tom Izzo Way.  

In Big Ten games, MSU is first in the league in scoring defense (62.71 ppg), field goal percentage defense (40.6%), and 3-point field goal percentage defense (26.7%). The Spartans have been terrific at guarding the 3-point line, for the most part, in recent weeks. Four of MSU’s last seven opponents have shot under 21% from beyond the arc. 

Summary: Picks and Prediction

The Spartans are 10-2 at home (6-1 ATS past seven there), while Indiana is just 4-6 on the road (2-7-1 ATS).

Thus, we’ll play the small MSU moneyline to avoid a possible ATS loss if Sparty were to win by a point. 

Score Prediction: Michigan State 66 - Indiana 65 

NCAAB Pick: Michigan State ML (-135) at BetOnline

NCAAB Pick: Under 135.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Under 135.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.