Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Our Best Bets for January 28

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Abu Kigab #24 of the Boise State Broncos drives to the rim. Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images/AFP

The Boise State Broncos will look to win their 14th game of the season as they take on another terrific defense in Fresno State. Can Boise State continue its impressive win streak? Which way to lean at the top-rated sportsbooks? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this game.

Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

Friday, January 28, 2022 – 11:00 PM EST at Save Mart Center

The Boise State Broncos will take on the Fresno State Bulldogs, on the road, looking for their 14th straight win of the season. The last time the Broncos lost was back on November 30, in overtime to St. Louis.

Boise State even beat Fresno State, at home, 65-55 during the current 13-game winning streak. Boise State shot 47% from three on 19 attempts and was just overall the better offensive team in that game.

But normally, it’s the defense that helps Boise State win. The Broncos just knocked off Utah State, San Diego State, and Wyoming, allowing 62 or fewer points in each of those three games.

Boise State has held opponents to a 45.2% effective field goal percentage while earning 20.8% turnovers. The Broncos are also top 10 in the league when it comes to defensive rebounding and that’s been the biggest key to Boise State’s success.

Fresno State is going to want to play in the half-court most of this game and if Boise State can defend and rebound on that one possession, the Broncos will keep Fresno State at a low score all night.

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Fresno State is an above-average offense, shooting a 50.7% effective field goal percentage. But when you face the Broncos, that above-average offense turns into just an average offense and sometimes a below-average offense.

Still, Fresno State is hitting 33.2% from deep and 51.4% from inside. Plus, the Bulldogs are also much better at the line, hitting 75.5% from the charity stripe. The Bulldogs will be looking for long-range shots throughout the game but aren’t that effective when shooting them.

On the other hand, Boise State is not going to light it up on the scoreboard either. The Broncos are shooting a 49.2% effective field goal percentage while turning the ball over 19.5%. There’s a good chance, on the road, that Boise State struggles to hold onto the basketball.

Luckily, they’ll be fine in transition on the defensive end and play well there, to get the ball back. Boise State is also very capable of earning second-chance buckets, earning 33% offensive rebounds. But like Boise State, Fresno State is solid on the defensive glass as well.

The Broncos are shooting just 60.3% from the foul line, and that’s another reason why Fresno State can hang around.

Prediction

Ultimately, this should be a tight game throughout. The total is currently set at 117, which is just extremely low. If both teams reach 60 points, this game is already over the total.

I agree with it though, the defense from both of these teams has been elite, especially in Mountain West play.

But overall, Boise State should give Fresno State a hard time just a little bit more in this game. The Broncos are a terrific defense that does a little more than Fresno State does on a daily basis.

So, for our college basketball picks, give me Boise State -115 on the money line.

NCAAB Pick: Boise State (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.