Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Our Best Bets for December 15

profile image of testmultisiteuser
063_1237108612-aspect-ratio-16-9
Rylan Jones #15 of the Utah State Aggies drives against Spencer Johnson #20 of the BYU Cougars. Chris Gardner/Getty Images/AFP

Weber State has just one loss on the year against a top 50 team in the nation. With a harder portion of the schedule coming up, can Weber State hold off Utah State?

Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this matchup!

Utah State Aggies vs. Weber State Wildcats

Wednesday, December 15, 2021 – 09:00 PM EST at Dee Events Center

The Utah State Aggies have been strong this year. The Aggies have losses to Saint Mary's and BYU but have already knocked off Oklahoma and Richmond on the year. Utah State is very capable of making March Madness and has plenty of talent this season. Now they'll head out on the road to take on Weber State, a team that has just one loss on the year.

Expert Prediction

That one loss came against Washington State, a top 50 team, where they ended up losing 94-60. Weber State played actual competition and got rocked on the road. All other wins came against teams outside of the top 125. Utah State is a top 75 team and will give Weber State a tough time in this game.

The Aggies are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 55.2 percent while hitting 36.9 percent from long range and 55.1 percent from inside the arc. The Aggies are also hitting 74.5 percent from the foul line and should have success on the offensive glass going up against Weber State.

Weber State is allowing nearly 30 percent of offensive rebounds and is one of the worst teams in the nation when it comes to offensive rebounds themselves, getting under 20 percent of offensive rebounds per game.

MORE PICKS: Northern Colorado vs. Arizona NCAA Basketball Betting Analysis and Free Pick For December 15

With Weber State, you're going to see a lot of one-and-done type shots. The Wildcats are shooting at a high percentage, however, shooting a 52.9 percent effective field goal percentage. They're also hitting 55.1 percent from inside the arc along with 33 percent from long range. But defending inside is an area where Utah State has been really solid, holding teams to just 45.5 percent on the season inside the arc.

Neither team is fouling all that much, but it does seem like Weber State finds a way to get to the line more frequently. That's also against the lower-tier competition. That's why, if Weber State struggles on the glass against these types of opponents, I find it hard to believe they'll have a chance against Utah State, even at home, on the glass.

Also, 68.6 percent of shots made by Utah State have been assisted by a Utah State player. That's good for second in the nation. This team is connected on the offensive end.

Expert Pick

Neither team has much depth coming off the bench. Utah State will sometimes play guys with two fouls in the first half. 24.9 percent of the time to be exact. Meanwhile. Weber State will only allow players to play with two fouls about 10.4 percent of the time.

If Utah State gives Weber State a problem in this game, as I expect, Weber State will commit some fouls and the lack of depth will hurt them in the long run.

So again, the main thing is here second-chance points and rebounding on the defensive end. Utah State is the better team offensively, to begin with, and should be able to defend inside at a solid rate, even with Weber State shooting 55.1 percent inside. Let’s take Utah State on the moneyline for our NCAAB pick tonight.

NCAAB Pick: Utah State ML (-145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Utah State ML (-145)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.