Daily NCAAB Top Picks: Will San Francisco Upset the Aggies in Mid-Major Showdown?

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Josh Kunen #10 of the San Francisco Dons drives to the basket against Murray State during their game in the first round of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on March 17, 2022. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

We’ve got another terrific day of college basketball ahead. With so many conference matchups and other intriguing games, I’ve come up with my favorite moneyline, spread and total plays for the day. 

Now, let’s break down some NCAAB odds!

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Utah State Aggies vs. San Francisco Dons 

Sunday, December 04, 2022, 08:30 PM EST at Chase Center

Game Analysis

The Utah State Aggies will take on the San Francisco Dons in what should be the top mid-major matchup of the night. Utah State has taken down a bunch of solid opponents inside the top 150 of college basketball. However, this will be its first test against a top-100 team. 

San Francisco has a loss to Davidson, 89-80, on the road but will be home in San Francisco for tonight’s matchup against Utah State. The Dons already have a win against Wichita State on a neutral site. 

The Aggies are one of the best offenses in the nation, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 60.5%. Utah State has hit 46.7% from downtown and 52.6% from inside the arc. The three-point percentage isn’t going to last. They’ll still be one of the best from downtown, but shooting nearly 47% against teams like San Francisco will be very hard

Second Chances

Utah State rarely earns offensive rebounds. So far, they haven’t had to worry about that. But San Francisco is dominant on the glass and should keep Utah State away from second chances. 

The Aggies will get to the line if they stay aggressive, and San Francisco won’t earn many turnovers. Meanwhile, San Francisco could have the same success from deep. The Dons are shooting threes at a higher clip than Utah State, banging 34.2% from downtown. 

Utah State has allowed opponents to shoot over 39% from three this season. There’s a good chance they’ll get some quality looks from downtown. 

The Pick

Like San Francisco, Utah State isn’t earning a high rate of turnovers. But they’re just as dominant on the defensive glass. 

This game will come down to the three-point ball. Utah State’s red hot from downtown, but the Aggies are also much worse at defending the three. Give me San Francisco at (semi) home. 

NCAAB Pick: San Francisco +2 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans 

Sunday, December 04, 2022, 07:00 PM EST at Breslin Center

Game Analysis

Northwestern started the season 5-0 with wins over Georgetown and Liberty. But they’ve lost two straight to Auburn and Pittsburgh and are in danger of losing the third game to the Michigan State Spartans. 

  • Michigan State has lost to: 
  • Gonzaga Alabama
  • Notre Dame

That Notre Dame game shouldn’t have been a loss; instead, Michigan State lost by 18. But the Spartans also have wins against: 

  • Kentucky
  • Villanova
  • Oregon
  • Portland

So they’ve also won their fair share of big games early. 

Playing Defense

Northwestern is one of the better defenses in the Big Ten. They’ve held teams to 37.6% from inside the arc and have held opponents to a 41.7% effective field goal percentage. 

Michigan State is only shooting 47.5% from inside the arc. Northwestern should be able to dominate inside and keep Michigan State off the foul line. 

On the other hand, Michigan State has also held opponents below a 50% effective field goal percentage. Opponents shoot 32.5% from deep and 49.4% from inside the arc. 

The Pick

The Wildcats are never really an offensive juggernaut. They’ve shot a 45.2% effective field goal percentage while hitting 31.8% from deep and 43.2% from inside the arc. Neither team runs a speedy offense, and neither should see the foul line at a high rate. Let’s back the under. 

NCAAB Pick: Under 126 (-110) at BetOnline

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Washington Huskies

Sunday, December 04, 2022, 03:00 PM EST at Alaska Airlines Arena

Game Analysis

The Colorado Buffaloes just got Deion Sanders to sign on the dotted line to be the head football coach. So there’s momentum in Colorado right now. The whole athletics department has to be feeling themselves right now. 

The Buffaloes lost games to: 

  • Grambling State
  • UMass
  • Boise State
  • Arizona State

But they’ve also got a massive win over Tennessee, 78-66, and knocked off Yale not too long ago. 

Bounce-Back Spot for Huskies?

On the other hand, Washington is coming off a brutal loss to Oregon State, 66-65, and also lost to Cal Baptist earlier in the season. The Pac-12 could be more elite toward the bottom of the standings. 

Nonetheless, this should ultimately be a close, competitive game. However, Washington’s probably in a look-ahead spot, knowing Gonzaga is next on the schedule. Washington is shooting a 48.9% effective field goal percentage. 

The Huskies are weaker on the offensive glass and are shooting 32.2% from deep and 49.2% from inside the arc. Meanwhile, Colorado is shooting 32.6% from three and 48% from inside the arc. Washington’s defense is better against threes, but Colorado’s better inside the arc. 

The Pick

The Buffaloes will take more threes, while the Huskies will try and bang around inside more. I also like Colorado to earn more offensive rebounds and second chances in this game. Colorado has earned 32.4% offensive rebounds, and Washington has allowed opponents to grab 30.5%. 

On the other hand, Washington has only earned 27.3% offensive rebounds, while the Buffalos have limited teams to 27.4% offensive rebounds. 

I’m backing Colorado to get the win on the road for our NCAAB pick on the moneyline. And for you Huskies fans looking to bet on this game, remember to check out our guide to the best Washington betting sites.

NCAAB Pick: Colorado ML (-110) at BetOnline

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.