NCAAB Pick: Dayton vs. Saint Louis – Under 138.5 (–110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
- Dayton vs. Saint Louis – Under 138.5 (–110)
- New Mexico vs. Colorado State – Under 154 (–108)
- Grand Canyon vs. Utah Tech – Over 147 (–110)
The NCAAB odds for Friday’s A-10 matchup between the Dayton Flyers and Saint Louis Billikens are screaming for a super-sized under bet.
March Madness may have arrived a bit early this year.
After sorting through Friday’s college basketball slate, we’ve lovingly hand-selected the three games with the softest NCAAB lines at press time – and our first selection is a rare 5-star deadbolt lock if the projections aren’t steering us wrong.
Remember, fans from the Buckeye State who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Ohio betting sites.
Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikens
Friday, March 3, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Chaifetz Arena
This is almost too good to be true.
Dayton (under 18-12) project to beat Saint Louis (under 15-14) 68-66 in this Atlantic 10 battle, but there’s a 138.5-point total on the NCAAB odds board at Bookmaker, giving us 4.5 points of clearance for our under bet.
What’s the News from Dayton?
The Flyers went into the 2022-23 campaign at No. 24 on the preseason polls, but they never quite got into gear; they rank No. 68 overall (No. 94 offense, No. 47 defense) on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts heading into their regular season finale.
Even better for our purposes, Dayton’s extra-slow pace of 63.4 possessions per game checks in at No. 345 out of the 363 teams in Division I. All that molasses, combined with head coach Anthony Grant’s defensive prowess, makes the Flyers a quality under bet against most teams.
Saint Louis (No. 79 offense, No. 155 defense, No. 72 pace) isn’t the kind of team we’d like to see in this spot, especially with those 69.7 possessions per game. But they did lose 70-56 to Dayton (under 137) back on February 10 as 5-point road dogs.
Let’s hope the change in venue doesn’t lead to overtime.
NCAAB Pick: Under 138.5 (–110) at Bookmaker
New Mexico Lobos vs. Colorado State Rams
Friday, March 3, 2023 – 11:00 PM EST at Moby Arena
This is more of a 4-star shrouded shackle, but the under 154 at Heritage is still worth a chunky bet when Colorado State (Over 17-11-1) hosts New Mexico (Over 18-10-1) in a Mountain West tilt that the Lobos project to win 76-75. Big bucks, no overtimes…
Why Is the Total So High?
Offense versus defense. The Lobos (No. 20 offense, No. 100 defense) and the Rams (No. 63 offense, No. 195 defense) are significantly better at the former than the latter.
New Mexico also fit in 71.6 possessions per game (No. 25), which is a lot. But Colorado State (66.3 possessions, No. 249) will slow things down somewhat – in theory.
Their previous meeting way back on December 28 did blow out the 152-point total when the Lobos won 88-69. Dig deep, though, and you’ll see that UNM shot 15-for-25 (60%) from downtown in that contest.
We’re betting it won’t happen again.
NCAAB Pick: Under 154 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers
Friday, March 3, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Burns Arena
Our third NCAAB pick is a 2-star knob-and-lever featuring the ‘Lopes (over 21-7) and Trailblazers (over 15-12), who we hope will continue their over ways despite the hefty 147-point total at Bovada Sportsbook.
Have the Oddsmakers Gone Crazy?
Perhaps. There was a 135.5-point total on the board when Grand Canyon beat Utah Tech 89-85 on January 18. Totals don’t normally shift this much in response.
Then again, the ‘Lopes are still projected to take this WAC matchup 75-74, and overtime obviously looms large here with Bovada calling this game a pick‘em at press time.
We also have two teams with the right kind of offense/defense imbalance for an over bet:
- Grand Canyon: No. 85 offense, No. 193 defense
- Utah Tech: No. 108 offense, No. 223 defense
The ‘Lopes are a bit slow at 65.1 possessions per game (No. 301), but the Blazers (69.2 possessions, No. 108) should help us out somewhat.
Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NCAAB Pick: Over 147 (–110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.