College Basketball Best Bets for Friday: Can Loyola Chicago Shock Dayton at Home?

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A Loyola Chicago Ramblers player drives to the basket against the Ohio State Buckeyes on March 18, 2022. Kirk Irwin/Getty Images/AFP

College Basketball Top Pick for Friday

NCAAB Pick: Loyola Chicago +7 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review

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Loyola Chicago +7 (-110)
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It’s a small slate in college basketball with no significant games.

But there’s still some value on the NCAAB odds board as we look to profit in tonight’s college basketball slate.  

Remember, fans from the Land of Lincoln who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Illinois betting sites

Picks Summary

  • Loyola Chicago +7 (-110)
  • Air Force +5 (-110)

Dayton Flyers vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers 

Friday, February 17, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Joseph J. Gentile Arena 

Game Notes

  • Dayton has won four of their last five games heading into tonight’s game.  
  • The Flyers are currently 9-4 in conference play and will be a hard out, even on the road.
  • Dayton will be heavily favored against a Ramblers team that has taken a step back this season.  
  • Loyola Chicago is just 3-10 in conference play but just rallied for a road win over UMass.
  • The Ramblers have been pretty bad on the defensive end. Loyola Chicago has allowed 34.1% from deep and 51.1% from inside the arc.
  • The Ramblers also foul at a very high rate. 

Flyers' Foul Line Blues

Meanwhile, Dayton is already getting to the foul line at a high rate. Still, the Flyers are only shooting 69.4% from the foul line

But from the field, the Flyers have shot 33.8% from downtown and 54.5% from inside the arc. They’ve got a balanced offense with a lot of playmakers. The group has also hauled in 30.7% of offensive rebounds and should earn a solid number of second chances in this game.  

Dayton has also turned the ball over nearly 20% of the time. They’ll have to limit that, or Loyola Chicago could take advantage.  

Turnovers Could Decide Game

On the other hand, the Ramblers have turned the ball over 23.1% of the time this season on offense. That’s one of the highest rates in college basketball. The Ramblers rarely give themselves a chance to win because of the turnovers.  

They still shoot 34.8% from deep and 55.2% from inside the arc. They can score with anyone, but the limited possessions are the problem. Loyola turns the ball over, and the Ramblers earn just 25% of offensive rebounds.  

Dayton’s limiting foul shots this season and keeping teams to 28.5% from deep and 46% from inside the arc. The Flyers also have limited teams to 26.4% of offensive rebounds.  

The Flyers have a terrific defense but don’t earn a high rate of turnovers. If Dayton continues that pace, Loyola Chicago will still put up some solid quality shots and have more possessions. If Dayton can earn more turnovers than usual, they’ll run away with this thing.

I’ll give Loyola Chicago the benefit of the doubt at home and take the +7.  

NCAAB Pick: Loyola Chicago +7 (-110) at BetOnline

Air Force Falcons vs. Wyoming Cowboys 

Friday, February 17, 2023 - 10:00 PM EST at Arena Auditorium 

Game Notes

  • Wyoming doesn’t have a ton of scholarship players right now. They’ve had an awful year, going 8-17 and 3-10 in conference play.  
  • Wyoming is coming off a 70-56 road win against a talented New Mexico team. The roster that the Cowboys do have is good. They’ve just got limited depth
  • Air Force is 13-14 on the season and 4-10 in conference play. The Falcons also beat New Mexico but are 1-7 in their last eight games.  
  • Still, Air Force knocked off Wyoming 82-74 at home earlier this year.  

Wyoming's State of D

The Cowboys haven’t been good defensively this year. They’ve allowed teams to shoot 36.6% from deep and 52.3% from inside. But they’ve also been a bit unlucky, with teams shooting 78% from the foul line against them.  

Wyoming will limit second chances by holding it down on the defensive glass and should end up limiting fouls, which would be huge for a shorthanded bunch.  

The Falcons have only earned 22% of offensive rebounds. They’ll rely heavily on making shots. They shoot 35.4% from deep and 55.6% from inside the arc. Most shots should fall for Air Force, even on the road.  

Bombs Away But We're Okay

On the other hand, Wyoming, at home, should be able to keep up offensively. The Cowboys have drained 35.2% from deep and 52.3% from inside the arc. The only problem is that Air Force has limited teams to 30.3% from deep this season.  

Wyoming typically takes a ton of threes on a game-to-game basis. The Cowboys should get to the foul line more often but won’t dominate the offensive glass, either.  

This game will strictly come down to Air Force’s ability to make shots on the road. The Falcons will escape with a win if Air Force shoots at a high percentage. But if not, Wyoming will cover the -5 spread. 

I’m going to pick Air Force to make their shots, knowing how bad Wyoming has been defensively this year.

Grab Air Force at +5 for your other NCAAB pick.  

NCAAB Pick: Air Force +5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Air Force +5 (-110)
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