NCAAB Pick: Nevada vs. Fresno State Under 129.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Fresno State Bulldogs and the Under are smart choices on Friday’s NCAAB odds board with the Nevada Wolf Pack on the other side.
There’s no question that the college basketball odds are getting tighter now that we’re at the tail end of the 2022-23 regular season. The betting market has already seen each of these teams play around 30 times, well over half of those games within their own conferences, so there isn’t much mystery left – until March Madness, of course.
But there’s still a right and a wrong side on the lines. Our three-pack of NCAAB picks for Friday’s slate includes a very tasty matchup in the Mountain West Conference, which still qualifies as a mid-major the last time we checked. The odds are naturally softer in these games, and this particular contest is worth firing a chunky bet at – maybe even two.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Friday, February 24, 2023 – 11:00 PM EST at Save Mart Center
This is one of the more competitive matchups on Friday’s schedule, with Nevada (21-7 SU, 17-8-2 ATS) projected to beat Fresno State (10-17 SU, 10-16 ATS) by around 3.5 points. But the Bulldogs are getting 4.5 points at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review); even better, there’s a 129.5-point total on the NCAAB odds board at Heritage Sports that’s just begging for us to pound the Under.
Can Fresno State Compete With Nevada?
Yes, by employing the tried-and-true strategy of playing as slowly as possible. The Bulldogs rank No. 333 in Adjusted Tempo according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency stats, getting in just 64.1 possessions per game. Fewer possessions, fewer chances for Nevada (66.0, No. 260) to score.
There’s still only a single point between the projections and the college basketball lines, so we’re more inclined to recommend the Under. Fresno State (Under 14-11-1) also ranks No. 248 on offense compared to No. 79 on defense, so they’re exactly the kind of team we want in this situation, while Nevada (Over 16-11) is a somewhat neutral commodity at No. 36 on offense and No. 38 on defense.
NCAAB Pick: Under 129.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Richmond Spiders vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Friday, February 24, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Stuart C. Siegel Center
Let’s stick with the mid-majors for our second bet, which sees Richmond (14-14 SU, 11-17 ATS) take on VCU (21-7 SU, 12-14-2 ATS) in Atlantic 10 action. The Spiders are 9.5-point puppies at BetOnline, but the Rams only project to win by nine, so that’s a slight lean and a fun-size bet for the roadside.
How Good Is VCU?
Not nearly as good as advertised. The Rams may be top of the A-10 table, but it’s almost entirely because of defense; they rank No. 25 in that department and just No. 173 on offense.
That’s still good enough for No. 77 overall on the Pomeroy charts, well ahead of No. 156 Richmond (No. 184 offense, No. 143 defense), but again, the Spiders limit any damage incurred by ranking No. 286 in pace at 65.6 possessions per game.
Keep that bet size small, though; Richmond is 2-9 ATS in their last 11, including a 74-62 loss to VCU as 1.5-point home faves back on January 20.
NCAAB Pick: Richmond +9.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Xavier Musketeers vs. Seton Hall Pirates
Friday, February 24, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Prudential Center
Apparently, Xavier (20-8 SU, 15-12-1 ATS) was too good for the A-10. They’re in the Big East now, where they’ll have to face an evenly-matched team from Seton Hall (16-12 SU, 15-12 ATS) in a pick’em. We’ll pass on that and take Over 141 instead for a small wager at Heritage Sports.
Why Bet the Over?
Because Xavier (Over 17-10-1). They fit in 71.3 possessions per game (No. 26), and they have the imbalance we need at No. 11 on offense and No. 84 on defense. Easy money.
But only small money. Seton Hall (Under 15-11-1) is even more imbalanced than the Musketeers in the wrong direction, ranking No. 13 on defense and No. 172 on offense. Their 67.3 possessions per game (No. 192) won’t move the needle much, but that defense, though.
Buckeyes, don't forget that there's a guide available with the complete list of the Ohio betting sites, check them out. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NCAAB Pick: Over 141 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
