NCAAB Pick: Ohio State vs. Michigan State – Under 139.5 (–110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
- Ohio State vs. Michigan State – Under 139.5 (–110)
- Penn State vs. Northwestern – Under 131 (–108)
Why stop now? Of course, our NCAAB picks for Friday’s Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals are both on the under – and for good reason.
Another day at the Big Ten Tournament, another split for our college basketball picks. We went with the under again for both Ohio State-Iowa and Penn State-Michigan; the former cashed in, but the latter did not.
Ah, but we did recommend a much larger bet size on that Buckeyes-Hawkeyes matchup. The potential profit margin was worth the risk, and it looks like we’re in exactly the same situation for Friday’s quarterfinals – right down to the start times for both games.
Remember, fans from the Buckeye State who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Ohio betting sites.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans
Friday, March 10, 2023 – 02:30 PM EST at United Center
We’re also left once again with the crumbs that the sharps left behind.
There was a 143-point total on the NCAAB odds board for Friday’s tilt between No. 13 Ohio State (over 16-13-2 during the regular season) and No. 4 Michigan State (over 16-14); now it’s down to 139.5 points at Bovada Sportsbook as we go to press.
Why Bet the Under?
Because there’s still a ton of betting value left for us. Our preferred projections here at the ranch have Michigan State scoring about 70 points, and Ohio State 66 or 67.
The Buckeyes have definitely been doing their part during this Tournament. Their first game against Wisconsin went under 130.5 by 7.5 points, and they beat Iowa 73-69 yesterday, sliding under 152 by a healthy 10 points.
Michigan State got the double-bye into the quarterfinals; they split their totals with the Buckeyes this year, going over in East Lansing and under in Ann Arbor. Neither result was even close; we’ll see if the neutral court at the United Center has a calming effect on this high-profile matchup.
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
Tom Izzo’s 1-3-1 zone offense certainly should. The Spartans rank No. 295 in Division I in terms of Adjusted Tempo, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency stats; they get in 65.2 possessions per game, more or less halfway between Wisconsin and Iowa.
Michigan State also ranks No. 35 on offense and No. 37 on defense, so we’re not getting the kind of imbalance we want for our under bet – until you look at the clash of styles in play.
Sparty happens to be dead-eye shooters from downtown, ranking third in Division I at 40.1%. The Izzone definitely has its charms; however, Ohio State’s No. 107-ranked defense tightens up a bit at the perimeter, where they allow opponents to shoot just 32.3% (No. 93).
Let the bricks fall where they may.
NCAAB Pick: Under 139.5 (–110) at Bovada
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Friday, March 10, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at United Center
Kudos to No. 10 Penn State for putting away No. 7 Illinois 79-76 (over 140) yesterday as 3-point puppies.
Now they have to face the No. 2 Wildcats, but the projections like the Lions to score 65-66 points to Northwestern’s 64-65.
Will They Go to Overtime?
That is the nightmare scenario – and it’s exactly what happened the last time they met. It was March 1st in Evanston; they were tied at 61 after regulation, then Penn State won 68-65 in overtime to force a push on the 133-point total.
The total’s even lower this time: 131 points at Heritage. But their standard (–108) deal on vigorish helps, and Northwestern (under 19-11-1) are exactly the kind of team we want in this situation:
- Offense: No. 103
- Defense: No. 20
- Pace: No. 303 (65.0 possessions per game)
Again, we don’t have the same margin here as we do for OSU-MSU, but there’s still enough room for a fun-size wager, so bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NCAAB Pick: Under 131 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.