Basketball Plays of the Day for January 27: Free NCAAB Picks

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Hayden Curtiss #15 of the Portland Pilots goes for the block against the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Soobum Im/Getty Images/AFP

The Portland Pilots will look to win in their first home game since December 17. Can they use the home court as an advantage tonight?

Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for tonight’s matchup.

Pacific Tigers vs. Portland Pilots

Thursday, January 27, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Chiles Center

Betting Analysis

The Portland Pilots haven't played a home game since December 17. Now they'll finally get a home game against Pacific tonight, about 40 days later. Portland's been a solid defense this year. The Pilots have held opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 48.6% while keeping teams off the foul line at a solid rate this season.

Opponents have hit just 33 percent from deep and 47.9 percent from inside against Portland this season. That number inside the arc is really solid. The average defense inside the arc is allowing teams to shoot 49.7 percent, for example.

Pacific won't shoot a ton of threes. This team likes to score inside the arc and has scored over 50 percent of its points this season inside the arc. Yet, Pacific is shooting just 45 percent from inside and has not been efficient at all.

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The Tigers are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 46.9 percent while only earning 23.6 percent offensive rebounds. Pacific has been able to limit turnovers but when shots go up, it's not like they're getting a ton of second chances.

On the other hand, Pacific has been awful defensively. The Tigers have allowed an effective field goal percentage of 54.3 percent. Why? Because they've allowed teams to shoot 39.7 percent from three this season.

Why is this so significant? Well, for one, that's just a top-five worst rate in college basketball. But, two, Portland is scoring a third of its points from the three-point line, which is an above-average rate this season. Portland likes to shoot it from three, and while the Pilots are only shooting 33.1 percent from deep, they're going to get very solid looks.

Both defenses don't foul very often, but Portland is the team that is getting to the line more frequently. The Pilots are currently shooting 81.2 percent from the foul line this year, which is the second-best rate in the country. So if this game comes down to the line, I'd be feeling confident with Portland's 81.2 percent in comparison to Pacific's 66.2 percent from the line.

Betting Prediction

Portland is not deep at all. The Pilots will rarely use their bench. Thankfully, the fouls don't pile up, and that allows them to do that. However, if Pacific gets into foul trouble, the Tigers will run right to its bench.

That would then leave Portland with some talent mismatches to exploit. Portland has the height advantage and while this team isn't very experienced, the Pilots are a talented group that continues to surprise this season.

After all, the Pilots took San Diego to overtime and lost to Montana State twice by just one possession. They also took a loss to VMI by less than double digits and continue to win games they're "supposed" to, so let's ride with them for our NCAAB pick tonight.

NCAAB Pick: Portland ML (-135) at BetOnline (visit BetOnline Review)

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Portland ML (-135)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.