Basketball Plays of the Day for January 11: Free NCAA Basketball Picks

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Ryan Rollins #5 of the Toledo Rockets. Gregory Shamus/Getty Images/AFP

Can Toledo make it three straight on the road against Miami (OH) in MAC play? Read on to take a look at the NCAAB odds and the best sportsbook to bet with today. 

Toledo Rockets vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks

Tuesday, January 11, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Millett Hall

Toledo has won two straight games and continues to win by blowouts. The next victim will be Miami (OH), on the road. The Rockets' last four victories have each been by about 30 points. The lone loss in their last five came against Kent State, on the road, 66-63, in a game where the offense just wasn't there.

Toledo is an incredible offense this season and is usually consistent in this area. The Rockets are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 50.1 percent while only turning the ball over 16.4 percent of the time. Toledo should be able to work the glass on the offensive end well, as they've brought down 32 percent of offensive rebounds this season.

The Rockets are fantastic on the glass, but also, they've been solid shooting the ball too. Toledo is shooting 34.7 percent from long range while shooting 49.2 percent from inside the arc. But despite a poor inside shooting percentage, Toledo is hitting 77.5 percent of foul shots and should get to the line way more often than Miami (OH) will.

Miami (OH) has lost six of its last seven D1 games this season. The RedHawks are coming off a loss to Bowling Green, in overtime, on the road. The RedHawks have a win against Buffalo, but they needed 91 points to win that game.

Defensively, we know Miami OH can't keep up. The RedHawks are allowing an effective field goal percentage of 51.7 percent while only forcing turnovers 16.7 percent of the time.

On the glass, the RedHawks have also allowed opponents to secure 30.4 percent of offensive rebounds. Plus, they've struggled to guard the three-point line, with opponents shooting 37.4 percent from downtown.

Miami (OH) doesn't have much length. In fact, the RedHawks are one of the shortest teams in all of college basketball and that's a large reason why most teams dominate them on the glass.

With a small lineup, the RedHawks are able to spread the floor on offense. They're one of the top teams in the country when it comes to limiting turnovers, however, they're going up against a much better defense. Miami (OH) shoots a 50.7 percent effective field goal percentage while also hitting 34.6 percent from three and 49.9 percent from inside the arc.

That's pretty on par with what Toledo does, except, on defense, Toledo has held opponents to 27.1 percent offensive rebounds while also guarding the perimeter very well. Opponents have shot just 29.6 percent from long range and 47.6 percent from inside the arc this year.

Plus, Toledo rarely fouls and Miami (OH) rarely gets to the line.

Prediction

Neither team is very deep and you won't see much production off the bench. But Miami (OH) is the one team that fouls at a much higher rate. The RedHawks won't play guys with two fouls *usually*. For your college basketball picks, that's something to look out for. So, therefore, give me Toledo -105 over Miami (OH) tonight on the ML.

NCAAB Pick: Toledo (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.