Basketball Plays of the Day for January 13: Free NCAAB Picks

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The Sun Belt Conference will get some time on ESPN2 tonight with a game between Georgia State and South Alabama.

Who will come out on top? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this matchup!

Georgia State Panthers vs. South Alabama Jaguars

Thursday, January 13, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at Mitchell Center

Betting Preview

South Alabama has been dealing with COVID. But at this point, there's too much value on South Alabama to pass this chance up. They'll welcome Georgia State to Mitchell Center for a game on ESPN2 at 09:00 PM EST.

In a typical South Alabama home game against Georgia State, South Alabama would be -230 or -250. Tonight, currently, South Alabama is just a -125 favorite due to undisclosed players potentially not playing in tonight's game. But I think the coach is setting a smokescreen right now.

“We’ve got enough to play, so we’re ready to go,” coach Richie Riley said. “We’re still dealing with some of it (COVID). We won’t have a full roster, but we’ll be close.”

Of course, they won't have a full roster. South Alabama has three players currently injured but after a complete cancellation of a game against Coastal Carolina, you'd like to believe that they'll have at least eight guys, which is more than the six they had against App State on January 6.

Betting Analysis

South Alabama is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 51.3 percent while hitting 32.1 percent from long range and 52.9 percent from inside the arc on the year.

Turnovers can get high, and I wouldn't be surprised if South Alabama turned the ball over a little bit more due to the layoff. However, South Alabama can also produce steals, earning 22.2 percent of turnovers this season.

While South Alabama isn't the greatest on the offensive glass, Georgia State has been worse on the defensive glass. The Jaguars won't shoot a ton of shots from three, but because Georgia State is allowing teams to shoot 42.2 percent on the year, we'll probably see more three-point shots and that would also give South Alabama more of an opportunity to earn offensive rebounds.

The Jaguars continue to dominate inside and that won't change on either side of the court. Georgia State is shooting just 41.3 percent from inside the arc, so far this season, which is one of the lowest rates in college basketball.

The Panthers have hit 36.5 percent from long range on the year, but it's not like the Panthers are shooting a whole lot of them, to begin with. On the year, the Panthers have an effective field goal percentage of 46.4 percent, which is close to the bottom 50 of college basketball.

Georgia State will have the advantage when it comes to depth, but overall, South Alabama doesn't use much depth, to begin with. They've got height and experience in the starting lineup and as long as those guys are out there, South Alabama should be fine.

Expert Prediction

I have to admit, I have no idea which players are out of this game. I did a bunch of research and couldn't find out which players could be out. But I do know that South Alabama is home and that the student section should be packed. That will only help the situation.

Due to overreaction, this line could start to get lower. Or once there's more info on who is in for South Alabama, this number can get higher. All I know is that, to me, -125 has value with South Alabama for my NCAAB pick. This team would normally be a -230 favorite in this spot.

NCAAB Pick: South Alabama ML (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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South Alabama ML (-125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.