Tonight’s slate is extremely small, but we’ve found value at the NCAAB odds in the ACC game between Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Tuesday, December 28, 2021 – 08:00 PM EST at Petersen Events Center
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take on the Pittsburgh Panthers in one of the few games that haven’t been canceled for today’s slate.
On tonight’s slate, there are a bunch of high major teams that are playing low-major teams with large spreads. This game is an ACC battle that should go down to the wire.
Pittsburgh has shot an effective field goal percentage of 45% while turning the ball over 21.7% of the time. Despite shooting 29.3% from deep and 45.5% from inside the arc, Pittsburgh still has the ability to score at a solid rate.
The Panthers are one of the top teams in the country in getting to the line and have brought down 34.1% offensive rebounds this season. I know the Panthers aren’t terrific at the line, shooting 65.7%, but with the volume that Pittsburgh shoots from the line, points will be scored with the time stopped.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is a much better offense with an adjusted efficiency in the top 30 in college basketball. The Fighting Irish shoot an effective field goal percentage of 50.7% while turning the ball over just 16.7% of the time.
The Fighting Irish are shooting 33.6% from long range and 51% from inside the arc of the year. These aren’t flashy numbers, but they’re above average numbers in comparison to the rest of college basketball.
Plus, Notre Dame shoots 76.5% from the foul line. The Fighting Irish won’t get there often but when they do, you can usually count on Notre Dame to hit most shots from the foul line.
Notre Dame isn’t going to dominate the glass against Pittsburgh, but the Fighting Irish love to shoot threes this season. At least if Pittsburgh is going to miss a shot, it’s likely going to come from outside the arc.
The Fighting Irish are scoring 50% of their points from three-point range and it’s not like Pittsburgh has defended the three all that well this season, allowing 33.2% from long range.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, has struggled to defend the three, allowing teams to shoot 37.6% from long range. Pittsburgh rarely shoots the three and doesn’t shoot it well, to begin with, but the Panthers can expect to get some quality looks from long range. If those shots don’t fall, second-chance points are in the cards for Pittsburgh.
With the slate so small, I don’t have an official college basketball pick for one team. But this is the game I’ll be watching. I’ll sprinkle some money on the over and enjoy an ACC matchup on a Tuesday Night.
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