Alabama vs. Gonzaga NCAA Basketball Picks and Odds Analysis

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Jahvon Quinerly #13 of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will welcome the Alabama Crimson Tide to Seattle, Washington. Can Alabama overcome the semi-road game and at least cover the big spread?

Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this matchup.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Saturday, December 4, 2021 – 08:00 PM EST at Climate Pledge Arena

It’s either going to be an awful day for Alabama fans and bettors or it’s going to be a day that Crimson Tide bettors and fans never forget. Before this game, Alabama will take on Georgia in the SEC Championship game in college football. Then after that, Alabama will take on Gonzaga in college basketball.

While this game doesn’t mean as much as the SEC Championship Game, it’ll mean plenty in March if the Alabama Crimson Tide is able to stun the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Alabama has the offense to stick around.

The Crimson Tide are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56 percent and will likely be able to limit turnovers on the offensive end. While Alabama loves to get out on the fastbreak, it’s going to be hard against a Gonzaga team that forces offenses to work to score. Teams are using an average of 18.1 seconds per possession this season offensively against Gonzaga.

Still, Alabama can work inside and score at will, like Gonzaga. The Crimson Tide is shooting 59.8 percent inside the arc and has hit 34.2 percent from long range. Alabama has also dominated the glass offensively and has gained 36.3 percent of offensive rebounds. Again, it’ll be tough to sustain those numbers against Gonzaga, but Alabama can absolutely win the glass on the offensive end on multiple occasions.

Gonzaga, on the other hand, has been ridiculous on the offensive end. The Bulldogs lead in adjusted efficiency and have an effective field goal percentage of 60.5 percent. Meanwhile, just like Alabama, Gonzaga likely won’t turn the ball over too often. Neither one of these defenses are very aggressive with earning turnovers.

Drew Timme #2 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs defends the rim against the Oklahoma Sooners. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

The Bulldogs are shooting 33.3 percent from long range along with 66.6 percent inside. Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring inside and the Bulldogs have faced teams like Duke, UCLA, and Texas already this year.

However, Alabama has done very well defending the three-point line and is allowing teams to shoot just 25.3 percent from long range this season. If Alabama can force misses from long range and win the defensive glass, they’ll stick around in this game.

Expert Prediction

It always used to be “if Alabama can score, they’ll win.” But now the Crimson Tide has the defense to keep up with the big dogs in college basketball. Alabama can defend the three, rebound at a high rate, and are able to limit teams from taking high-quality shots. Therefore, I’ll roll with the Alabama Crismon Tide in this one against the spread.

This team can ultimately stick around with Gonzaga, especially with this game being played away from Gonzaga’s actual home court. I’m not guaranteeing Alabama wins, but I like them to cover the hefty spread for my NCAAB pick. The offense is really coming together after torching Miami for 96 in a 32-point blowout.

NCAAB Pick: Alabama+9.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Alabama +9.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.