Top NCAAB Pick for Today
NCAAB Pick: Mike Miles Jr. (TCU) – Under 16.5 Points (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary:
- DJ Horne (Arizona State): Over 13.5 Points (-120)
- Devan Cambridge (Arizona State): Over 5.5 Rebounds (-140)
- Mike Miles Jr. (TCU): Under 16.5 Points (-110)
The Arizona State Sun Devils will look for their second win in the NCAA Tournament. Can Mike Miles Jr. and TCU end the Arizona State Cinderella run?
Here are some player props to consider for tonight’s late game between Arizona State and TCU for your top NCAAB picks.
Remember, fans from the Lone Star State who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Texas betting sites.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Friday, March 17, 2023 – 10:05 PM EDT at Ball Arena
Matchup Analysis
Arizona State
Is Arizona State playing its best basketball of the season? The Arizona State Sun Devils just knocked off Nevada, 98-73, in the First Four matchup between two 11 seeds. The Sun Devils moved on and will now face the TCU Horned Frogs as an 11-seed against the 6-seed.
Arizona State typically isn’t that great offensively. The Sun Devils have shot 31.9% from three and 48.5% from inside the arc this season. Even at the foul line, Arizona State has only scored 68.9% from the stripe.
The Sun Devils have done well limiting turnovers and have earned 29.4% of offensive rebounds. That’s the one area they’ll succeed in against this TCU defense.
TCU
But TCU has held teams to 30.4% from three and 49.1% from inside the arc. Other than the defensive glass, TCU has been dominant defensively. The Horned Frogs have even added 21.9% of turnovers.
TCU is also known for earning many blocks and steals defensively. Over 24% of possessions usually result in a steal or block by TCU.
Is TCU Good Enough to Make a Run?
The Big-12 has already had an interesting tournament. Was the Big-12 overrated, or are the top teams just that much better than the bottom?
TCU has shot 30.6% from three and 51.9% from inside the arc this season. The Horned Frogs have succeeded on the offensive glass, grabbing 32.4% of offensive rebounds. It’s also more likely that TCU gets to the foul line at a higher rate in this game.
The Horned Frogs will keep turnovers down but watch their shots get blocked over 10% of the time.
Arizona State has blocked 13.2% of shots and has held teams to a 43.8% from inside the arc. Teams will need help to score when playing closer to the basket. Nevada couldn’t even get inside the arc against Arizona State throughout the game, settling for three-point jumpers.
The Sun Devils have allowed 31.4% of offensive rebounds. That’s the one area they’ll struggle in against TCU. But ultimately, the Sun Devils have earned 20.5% of turnovers and have still held teams to 34.1% from downtown. TCU isn’t all that consistent from downtown. That should help Arizona State in this game.
Matchup Problems?
However, TCU isn’t a high-volume shooting team from downtown. They’d rather score inside. That’s where Arizona State is lethal on defense. So it’ll be hard for TCU to be consistent on the offensive end.
This team lost Eddie Lumpkin Jr. to the portal in the middle of the season. So that could also be a distraction for this team.
But ultimately, TCU’s defense should still be good against an inconsistent Arizona State offense. The Sun Devils dominated in the last game, but I don’t expect them to put up another 100-point explosion.
The under sounds appealing in this game according to the latest NCAAB odds. Picking a side will be tough. So I’ll stick to adding some player props to the portfolio.
DJ Horne (Arizona State)
Over/Under Points
- At home, only averages 12.4 points per game this season.
- He’s shooting just 36.5% from the field this year.
- Horne shot 70% in the first tournament game, scoring 20 points, which will be hard to replicate.
- Horne doesn’t have a top offensive rating or high usage. Desmond Cambridge does, though.
NCAAB Pick: DJ Horne – Over 13.5 Points (-120) at BetOnline
Devan Cambridge (Arizona State)
Over/Under Rebounds
- Cambridge adds 5.5 rebounds per game this season.
- Has added at least five rebounds in four of his last five games.
- He has an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.9, which is 337th in the country.
- Arizona State should have significant success on the offensive glass, with help from Cambridge.
NCAAB Pick: Devan Cambridge – Over 5.5 Rebounds (-140) at BetOnline
Mike Miles Jr. (TCU)
Over/Under Points
- Miles averages 17.3 points per game this season.
- Scored just 15 points in 34 minutes against Texas in the last Big-12 Matchup
- TCU doesn’t shoot many shots from long range and will struggle to score inside. That includes Miles.
- Miles folds against top teams. For example, he scored fewer than 17 against Texas twice and added just 13 against Kansas.
NCAAB Pick: Mike Miles Jr. – Under 16.5 Points (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
