Top NCAAB Pick: Jalen Pickett Over 5.5 Assists (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The first round of the NCAA Tournament is starting up! I’ve added my favorite NCAAB picks for tonight’s biggest toss-up game on the slate, between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Texas A&M Aggies.
Player Props Summary
- Andrew Funk (Penn State) Over 2.5 Threes (-130) at BetOnline
- Jalen Pickett (Penn State) Over 5.5 Assists (-115) at BetOnline
- Wade Taylor (Texas A&M) Over 18.5 Points (-120) at BetOnline
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Thursday, March 16, 2023 – 09:55 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Arena
Andrew Funk (Penn State) Over/Under Threes
- Andrew Funk averages 12.1 points per game this season.
- He has shot 40.5% from downtown this year.
- Coming off an 0-for-5 game against Purdue (should bounce back).
- Before 0-for, he shot 19-for-37 from three, which is 51.3%.
- Funk has taken at least eight threes in four of his last six games.
NCAAB Pick: Andrew Funk Over 2.5 Threes (-130) at BetOnline
Jalen Pickett (Penn State) Over/Under Assists
- Jalen Pickett is third in the nation in assist rate this season.
- Pickett has averaged 6.7 assists per game this year.
- However, he’s been looking to score more in tournament play, earning four or fewer assists in his last three games.
- If Penn State wants a chance at winning tonight’s game, Pickett will have to distribute the ball better and stop looking for his shot as much.
NCAAB Pick: Jalen Pickett Over 5.5 Assists (-115) at BetOnline
Wade Taylor (Texas A&M) Over/Under Points
- Wade Taylor has a 115 offensive rating, which is 316th in the nation.
- His usage is sitting at 29%, which is good for 73rd in the nation.
- Taylor averages 16.5 points per game this season.
- He added 21 points per game over the last four games, including two games against Alabama.
NCAAB Pick: Wade Taylor Over 18.5 Points (-120) at BetOnline
Matchup Analysis
Will Texas A&M Escape Penn State in the Round of 64?
The Texas A&M Aggies were arguably the second-best team in the SEC this year. The Aggies went 15-3 in the regular season against SEC opponents and then knocked off two more SEC opponents in the SEC Tournament before losing to Alabama in the Final. This Aggies team already won a game against Alabama earlier this year. If they can beat Alabama, they can beat anyone.
Texas A&M has earned 36.6% of offensive rebounds and has been getting to the foul line at one of the highest rates in college basketball. The Aggies don’t shoot it particularly well, hitting only 32.8% from three and 49% from inside the arc. But the second chances, extra possessions, and foul shooting will keep them in the game.
Texas A&M has hit nearly 76% of foul shots this season and should do a great job limiting turnovers in this game. Penn State only earns 13.1% of turnovers per game. The Nittany Lions have been much better on the defensive glass, giving up just 25.1% of offensive rebounds. Opponents have shot 33.3% from three and 48.8% from inside the arc this season. Those are both above-average numbers on the defensive end for Penn State.
Will Penn State Continue Shooting Lights Out?
The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming into this game hitting 38.5% from deep and 53.5% from inside the arc throughout the season. They take a crazy amount of threes but hit them at such a high pace that it doesn’t kill the offense. However, Penn State’s lack of offensive rebounds and foul shots could kill this offense.
The Nittany Lions have only earned 18.8% of offensive rebounds and get to the foul line at a meager rate. They still hit 73.8% of foul shots, but it’s concerning, knowing that Texas A&M is incredible in the two areas that Penn State isn’t. The Aggies will dominate the offensive glass and stay aggressive to get to the foul line faster. At that point, you’ve got to hope that Penn State shoots its averages and then some just to stick around in this game.
Penn State can limit turnovers, even against an aggressive A&M defense. The Nittany Lions have allowed just 13.7% of turnovers, while their opponents have added 21% per game this season. But you can trust Penn State to hold onto the ball. It’s just that the Nittany Lions also won’t earn many turnovers on their side.
The Aggies will get more possessions from second chances and earn more freebies at the foul line. That’s why, after reviewing the NCAAB odds, I’ve got the Texas A&M Aggies winning tonight’s matchup against Penn State.
Lone Star State residents can go to the best Texas betting sites to make their bets.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
