There’s a reason why they call it Madness. Anything can happen at the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament – even all the No. 1 seeds getting knocked out before the Elite Eight, which happened this year for the first time in modern March Madness history (1979 and beyond).
The insanity continues this Saturday in Houston with the Final Four round, aka the National semifinals. The highest remaining seed is the No. 4 UConn Huskies, taking on the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes in the nightcap; that’s after No. 5 San Diego State and No. 9 Florida Atlantic lock horns at NRG Stadium.
Presented with this unlikely Basketball Rhombus, should we even bother looking at the Final Four betting trends? Of course, we should. There’s always something history can teach us that will improve our NCAAB picks, so let’s get to it.
Betting Trends for the Final Four
ACC: Where the Gold Is At
This has been a rough year for the Atlantic Coast Conference. According to the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference, the ACC finished seventh among the 32 D-I conferences in terms of efficiency, behind the mid-major Mountain West.
Miami can redeem the ACC this Saturday with a competitive performance versus a very tough Connecticut team.
The Hurricanes are 6-point underdogs on the NCAAB odds board at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) as we go to press, but if we’ve done the math right, ACC teams are 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS at the Final Four since 2001.
That improves to 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS when you remove the three times their teams faced each other.
Fresh Coaches
Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, they run afoul of our next March Madness betting trend: Head coaches new to the Final Four have guided their teams to a 12-8 SU and 13-6-1 ATS record since 2005. It happened again last year when Hubert Davis led the North Carolina Tar Heels to an 81-77 victory over Mike Krzyzewski’s Duke Blue Devils (-4.5) in one of those all-ACC contests.
You’d think that Miami head coach Jim Larranaga’s experience at the 2006 Final Four would help the ‘Canes this Saturday – and it should, betting trends be damned. But the Huskies might have the coaching edge with Dan Hurley, one of the more promising minds in college hoops, and the 2018 Atlantic 10 Coach of the Year at Rhode Island.
Bizarro World Totals
In theory, when basketball totals get bigger, the Under should cash in more often. The Final Four cares not for theories; dating back to 1999, the Over is 23-14-2 in games where the total is higher than 130 points.
Both of Saturday’s games qualify for our March Madness betting trends. There’s a total of 131.5 points on the NCAAB lines at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) for the FAU-SDSU game, and 150 points for the Miami-UConn matchup.
Not So Fast, Says San Diego
Before you load up on the Over for your Final Four picks, let’s take a closer look at the specific betting trends for each semifinal matchup. San Diego State (Under 22-14) is not the kind of team you normally want in an Over bet: They’re slow (No. 266 in tempo according to Pomeroy), and they play much better defense (No. 4) than offense (No. 74).
All told, SDSU has driven the Under to the pay window in 12 straight games, including eight in a row after an ATS win. Fade that at your discretion.
Like a Hurricane
Finally, here’s one more reason to feel confident about Miami’s chances this Saturday against the Huskies: The Hurricanes are 6-7 SU and 10-3 ATS versus UConn dating back to 1998. Then again, they’re also 0-2 SU and ATS since 2008.
That’s what you get with NCAAB betting trends, so bet accordingly at the best U.S. sports betting sites, and may the sphere be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
