2022 NCAA Tournament Odds Update and Pick

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Brandon Johns Jr. #23 of the Michigan Wolverines reacts. Andy Lyons/Getty

College basketball is about to take over the sports world, and we have a lot of catching up to do. College basketball has more turnaround than any other league, so it is nearly impossible to predict in the offseason.

Players head to various pro leagues, but they can return within a certain time frame. Players are more likely to transfer, and they can leave after just one year with a team. With so many teams and a 68-team tournament to end the year, college basketball is as wild as it gets.

We are now hitting that sweet spot between having information but still having to project. If you can wade these waters, you can find plenty of value in NCAAB’s future odds for the upcoming college basketball season.

Plenty has changed this summer, and we need to keep an eye on what to expect as the regular season approaches. Which futures values have changed the most? Are the shifts fair? Here are some teams to watch and a pick for the upcoming college basketball season. Who is going to win it all this spring?

Texas’s Rise in the Ranks

The Texas Longhorns had one of the best seasons last year, but a few key losses overshadowed their success. A poor NCAA Tournament performance was what the Longhorns will be remembered by. Now, Shaka Smart is out, and Chris Beard is in. Beard brings instant credibility to Texas after his success with Texas Tech. He had the Red Raiders a win away from hoisting a championship banner, and he will have more resources in Austin.

For Beard, it just comes down to when he can turn things around. He inherits a relatively solid team, but the roster will mostly be comprised of transfers. If they can all buy-in and learn a new system, they will be winning as early as this season.

Texas’s betting odds to win a title opened at +2800, but they have since been cut in half. They now have +1400 odds, and that is all thanks to Chris Beard. If they lose a few early games, this line might have value again. Right now, you would be paying a premium for an unproven team.

Watch Out for Memphis

The Memphis Tigers have one of the best-recruiting classes of all time, but it was late to the party. Memphis opened up with +4000 NCAAB odds to win a title. If it weren’t for a couple of early enrollees who reclassified, they would have stayed around there. However, having two of the best recruits reclassified has shifted their value to +1800.

Penny Hardaway still has to make something happen with the talent, but all the pieces are there for the Tigers to be great. To be fair, they haven’t made the most out of their talent in previous years. Still, they ended last year on a strong note and hope to carry momentum into the 2021-22 season.

Head coach Penny Hardaway of the Memphis Tigers. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

It would be wild for a team like Memphis to win it all next year, but crazier things have happened. They have a proven head coach and more talent than most Power 5 rosters. If they can stay healthy and learn to work together, they should make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Alabama’s Added Value

Alabama went from +1600 to +1800 this offseason. Why is that? For starters, they lost more talent than they expected to this offseason. Josh Primo decided to head to the NBA, and he was a key contributor to last year’s team. They’ve also suffered some injuries, and they will have a tough road in the SEC.

Alabama may have the hardest schedule in college basketball next year. With so many easy losses on their schedule, they’ll have to avoid upsets to have a nice seeding. They struggled in their exhibition game against Louisiana, so that is not a great start. Still, they have one of the most talented rosters in the SEC and a great head coach in Nate Oats.

Who Will Win It All?

Despite the debates, Gonzaga easily deserves to be the top team in college basketball. They bring back some key contributors from last year’s team, but they also have an elite recruiting class coming in. If I had to simply pick a team, I would pick them. However, the +650 odds have little value.

In terms of a college basketball pick, I’ll take the value with the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan has one of the best new head coaches in college basketball. They made a solid NCAA Tournament run last year, and they retain key players from that squad. They will also have an influx of talent through recruiting, so all the pieces of the puzzle are there. They just have to put it all together.

NCAAB Pick: Michigan (+900) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.