The Golden State Warriors will face conference rivals, the Phoenix Suns, on the road, in what should be an exciting game featured on TNT. Can the Suns use homecourt advantage to their favor tonight?
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, October 25, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
The Golden State Warriors have started the season 2-1 after earning a Championship last year. Now, they’ll take on a conference rival in the Phoenix Suns, who are looking to add a championship to their resume this year.
The Suns are also 2-1 to begin the year with wins over the Mavericks and Clippers and an overtime loss to the Blazers.
The Warriors have wins over the Lakers and Kings. The Suns have played a more difficult schedule to begin the year, but will that take a toll on the Suns in this game?
Here are our NBA picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns.
Warriors Hope to Earn Many Foul Shots
The Golden State Warriors are averaging 115.8 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%. The offense has turned the ball over 15.5% of the time and has struggled to earn a high rate of offensive rebounds to begin the year.
However, the Warriors are one of the best teams at getting to the foul line this season. They’ve got a free-throw rate of 2.5, while the Suns’ defense has allowed a 28.4 rate. That rate is the worst in the NBA at this time.
We’re using short sample sizes right now, but the Warriors should end up finding good looks in this game. They’ll have to keep turnovers down and fight harder on the offensive glass to earn second chances. The Suns have been splendid defensively, allowing 105.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s due to their defensive rebounding and turnovers.
Steph Curry has averaged 33.3 points per game, while Andrew Wiggins has added 22.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Klay Thompson has only played 23.3 minutes per game and has still scored 14 points per game.
JaMychal Green leads the Warriors in offensive rebounds with under 3 per night. Wiggins and Looney are the only other players with at least one per night.
Can We Trust Phoenix’s Offense?
The Phoenix Suns have scored 110.2 points per 100 possessions while shooting a 52.6% effective field goal percentage. These are average numbers in the NBA. They’ve also turned the ball over 14.3% of the time.
There’s a good chance that the Warriors can also earn some turnovers on their side of things. Golden State has gained 17.9% turnovers, which is the second-best in the league.
The Suns have also added 26.7% of offensive rebounds and have struggled to get to the line. Phoenix is playing like an average offense right now. The Warriors don’t have many weaknesses on defense that the Suns can attack.
Devin Booker has led the offense with 32 points per game, but there’s no other player on the roster averaging 20 or more points than Booker. Deandre Ayton is 2nd with 19 points per game, and then Mikal Bridges would be next in line with 11 points per game. It’s a bit concerning!
Pick and Prediction
The Warriors are indeed playing the better offense right now. The Suns have limited damage with a high turnover percentage and have done well on the defensive glass.
However, the Warriors will still get quality looks and plenty of free-throw attempts in this game. If the Warriors limit the turnovers and have more success on the offensive glass, the Suns will have no answers defensively.
On the flip side, the Suns rarely get to the line and are mostly average in other major categories offensively. There’s a good chance that the Suns turn the ball over just as much as the Warriors. Golden State has earned 17.9% of turnovers to start the season.
The Suns might win more offensive rebounds and second chances, but the amount of volume that Golden State will have at the foul line will counteract that.
I’ve got the Warriors winning this game on the road. I need to see more out of the Phoenix offense before I can bet them against top teams in the West. The Warriors have more depth heading into this game and that’s helped a lot, knowing that some of their starters are still trying to get conditioned.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.