Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Playoffs Game 4 Best Bets

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This Tuesday, the Under belongs in your NBA picks when the Dallas Mavericks host the Golden State Warriors. But what about the spread?

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Tuesday, May 24, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center

The sharps have seen enough. As we go to press, the consensus reports at BMR show 85 percent of early bettors pounding the Golden State Warriors for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals.

Shortly after the Warriors opened as 1-point road dogs on Tuesday’s NBA odds board at BetOnline.

It’s hard to argue, given how thoroughly Golden State dominated the Dallas Mavericks through the first three games of this series.

But after digging deep, and peeling back the layers, most of us at the home office are putting the Mavericks in our betting picks – along with the Under.

Are the Mavericks Finished?

They may be down 3-0 in this best-of-seven affair, but the Mavericks aren’t quite dead yet.

They definitely gave Golden State a run for their money in Game 3, sticking with the Dubs in the first half before falling off in the second and losing 109-100 as 3-point home faves.

Those high-variance threes plagued Dallas again during Sunday’s matchup.

Warriors vs. Mavericks: Defense Performance

Credit Golden State’s defense as well, but when the Mavs shot 13-for-45 (28.9 percent) from downtown – including a combined 0-for-12 from Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber – bad luck definitely played a role for Big D.

As a result, we’re getting what should be a bargain price on Dallas at –1. FiveThirtyEight projects them to win Game 4 by three points, congruent with the NBA lines for Game 3.

And that doesn’t factor in the extra motivation the Mavs will bring to their home court as they try to avoid the sweep.

Have the Warriors Solved Dallas?

In a way. The offensive sets that Golden State is throwing at Dallas have been very effective thus far.

The Mavs haven’t done an excellent job switching on defense; that wasn’t a burning issue against the Phoenix Suns and their half-court offense, but it certainly is now with Stephen Curry leading the charge.

The bigger concern for the Warriors might be how much gas they have left in the tank.

With Andre Iguodala (neck) and Gary Payton II (elbow) out of commission, Golden State has tightened their rotation considerably, handing major minutes to Curry and the rest of their veteran starters in Game 3.

Warrior's Rotation

That rotation could get even tighter for Game 4. Otto Porter Jr. (foot) is listed as doubtful after logging just seven minutes on Sunday; the Dubs still have Nemanja Bjelica waiting in the wings, but Porter has been a tremendous two-way player for Golden State this year, while Bjelica’s value is mostly on defense.

Warriors vs. Mavericks: Who To Bet On?

Speaking of which, the Under does look like a viable NBA pick after Heritage Sports opened the total at 215.5 points, comparable to the totals from the first three games (Under 2-1).

Dallas may experience some positive regression Tuesday night with their 3-pointers, but tired legs, Porter’s absence, and home-friendly officiating could impact Golden State’s offense as well. Bet accordingly.

NBA Pick: Mavericks –1 (–105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Mavericks –1 (–105)
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NBA Pick: Under 215.5 (–108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Under 215.5 (–108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.