Warriors vs. Mavericks NBA Playoffs Game 3 Betting Analysis and Pick

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The Golden State Warriors won the first two games of the Western Conference Finals at home. Tonight, they’ll take on the Mavericks at home, looking to go up 3-0 in the series. Can the Warriors execute? 

Let’s see what the NBA odds tell us! 

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks 

Sunday, May 22, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center 

The Golden State Warriors rallied from 19 down to defeat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, 126-117. The Warriors now lead the series, 2-0, and the Mavericks really have a “must-win” game against the Warriors tonight.  

Dallas has been terrific at home during the playoffs but just lost two straight games to the Warriors, while allowing at least 112 points scored in each game. The defense hasn’t shown up and while production was better in Game 2 than in Game 1, the Mavericks are going to need that same product along with some defense in Game 3. 

Will the Mavericks earn a Game 3, at home? Here are our NBA picks and predictions for the Western Conference Finals Game 3 between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks.  

Game 2 Recap 

Again, the Warriors shot lights out in Game 2. Golden State nailed 56.1% of shots from the field and hit 50% from three in the game. The Warriors also got to the line 25 times and shoot 80% from the free-throw line, equalling 80%.   

The Warriors dominated the glass, winning that battle by 13, and scored 32 more points in the paint in comparison to Dallas.  The Mavericks shot a solid 47.4% from the field and hit 46.7% of threes off 45 attempts. That kind of shooting will usually win games. However, the Mavericks struggled on the glass and allowed the Warriors to shoot at too high of a percentage.  

Mavericks’ star, Luka Doncic, scored 42 points on 12-for-23 from the field. He wasn’t the only one doing the scoring in this game with Jalen Brunson adding 31 points. Even Reggie Bullock scored 21 points, but it all wasn’t enough.  

The defense couldn’t get stops when it mattered the most. Steph Curry added 32 points while Jordan Poole scored 23 and Kevon Looney added 21. Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green weren’t even the top three scorers for the Warriors.

This just shows you how the Warriors can adjust to whatever is being thrown their way defensively. The Warriors are deep and really good. That win from the Warriors allowed them to be up 2-0 in the series.  

The Expectation for Game 3  

The Golden State Warriors weren’t very consistent offensively in the regular season. But now that they’re near full health, it’s been hard to stop the Warriors on the offensive end.  

The Warriors are usually turning the ball over at a very high rate and rarely get to the foul line. But the thing the Warriors do so well is getting good shots. The Warriors had a 55.3% effective field goal percentage this season and that’s good for fourth in the entire league.  

Meanwhile, the defense of the Warriors was much better this season as they held opponents to 107.6 points per 100 possessions along with an effective field goal percentage of 51.3%. If the Warriors are making shots and getting stops, they’re going to win Game 3.  

The one thing the Warriors will want to do is try and force others to make plays and keep Luka Doncic’s night average. When Doncic is scoring a high amount of points, the Mavericks usually end up winning. When he’s silent, the Mavericks stay silent. Obviously, Game 2 was an outlier but overall, the Warriors would love to force other players to make plays.  

The Mavericks can’t really shoot a better percentage from three than in Game 2. The Mavericks hit 46.7% from downtown on 21-of-45. Don’t expect the Mavericks to dominate the glass either against the Warriors.

The Mavericks will have to earn a lot of turnovers and capitalize on those turnovers with points. If the Mavericks don’t do that, the Warriors will likely run away with this game.  

Game Prediction 

I’ll take the Warriors to extend their series lead to 3-0. The Warriors likely won’t shoot above 50% in tonight’s game but the experience of the Warriors is usually underappreciated.  

Golden State has a depth off the bench while the Mavericks simply don’t. Dallas has inconsistency off the bench.

In Game 2:

  • Spencer Dinwiddie scored just four points in 22 minutes.
  • Maxi Kleber added three points in 33 minutes.  
  • Kleber fouled more than he scored off the bench in Game 2. 
  • Jordan Poole and Otto Porter Jr. are coming off the bench ready to contribute.

 

Let’s take the Warriors in a small upset on the road.  

The Pick 

For your NBA pick, I’m taking the Warriors +2.5 on the road.  

NBA Pick: Warriors +2.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review

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Warriors +2.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.