Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA Playoffs Game 5 Predictions and Top Play

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The Golden State Warriors can eliminate the Memphis Grizzlies with a win in Game 5 this Wednesday evening on TNT.

The Warriors erased a 12-point deficit in the fourth quarter of Game 4 to take a commanding 3-1 lead. Let’s see what the NBA odds for this matchup tell us!

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 – 09:30 PM EDT at FedExForum

The Warriors (45-42-4 ATS) are a 4-point favorite over the Grizzlies (58-33-1 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.

Memphis covered the spread at a league-high rate of 63.7% this season, but nothing short of an outright win will extend the Grizzlies’ season another game.

Game 4 Recap: Warriors 101, Grizzlies 98

The NBA can be quite the rollercoaster ride.

  • Two days after playing a 142-112 game where the Warriors shot a season-high 63.1% from the field, these teams went into halftime of Game 4 in a 41-38 brick contest.
  • Things picked up from there, but both teams finished under 42% shooting. Golden State was 9-for-37 from three, including a 0-for-10 night for the duo of Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole.
  • Steph Curry scored 18 of his 32 points in the fourth quarter to lead a comeback after the Warriors trailed by 12 points with just over 10 minutes left.

It was not until a Curry free throw with 45 seconds left that the Warriors took their first lead of the night.

They held on as the Grizzlies were missing Ja Morant, who was spectacular in the first three games of this series.

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While the Grizzlies were 20-5 without Morant this season, they only showed their defensive prowess without him on Monday night.

Offense Disappointment

The offense was a big disappointment, and that onus falls heavily on Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks, the team’s best players not named Morant.

Bane must be dealing with a back injury as he again was passive and held to single-digit points for the third time in four games of this series.

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Brooks returned from a Game 3 suspension and shot 5-of-19 from the field in another bad performance for him against Golden State.

Who Have The Best Players in this Series?

Kyle Anderson had a respectable 17 points off the bench, but he also missed five free throws on a night the Grizzlies couldn’t afford to miss out on any easy points.

The only Memphis player to take a free throw was Jaren Jackson Jr., who scored 21 points but on 21 shots.

Morant and Curry have been the best player for their teams in this series.

Game 4 showed just how much of a disadvantage it was for the Grizzlies not to have their star point guard while Curry finished off the comeback for Golden State.

Are the Grizzlies Finished?

The news broke Tuesday that Morant’s postseason is likely over due to the bone bruise in his knee.

The Grizzlies have to fight on without him, and while their Net Rating without him on the court was 1.7 points better in the regular season, the team’s performance in this series is not enough to succeed without him.

Bane and Brooks are just not up to the task right now for different reasons.

The Warriors are not whole either as head coach Steve Kerr was a surprise scratch for Game 4 after testing positive for COVID.

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He is unlikely to coach Game 5, but assistant Mike Brown has plenty of head coaching experience and will have that responsibility again.

Warriors' Offensive Efficiency

But the Warriors’ drop in offensive efficiency at home from Game 3 to Game 4 can largely be summed up by how bad they were on wide-open shots, according to data on NBA.com.

  • In Game 3, the Warriors were 15-for-22 (68.2%) on wide-open shots, their best game of the series.
  • In Game 4, the Warriors were 8-for-24 (33.3%) on wide-open shots, their worst game of the series.

Memphis missed a golden opportunity to tie this series as it is unlikely the Warriors will miss that many open shots again.

At least one of Thompson or Poole will play well in Game 5, and Curry has been consistent in this series. The Grizzlies simply do not have anyone reliable right now to count on.


The Grizzlies have had a great season, but health is not in their favor at this critical juncture.

The Warriors have learned the hard way how that goes, and this is the first time since 2019 that the core of Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green have been healthy together at the right time.

This is the same core that was in five straight NBA Finals.

The Grizzlies should not get blown out at home but look for Golden State to cover and advance to the Western Conference Finals for your NBA picks this Wednesday.

Score Prediction: Warriors 112, Grizzlies 106

NBA Pick: Warriors -4 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Warriors -4 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.