Warriors vs. Bulls Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick

profile image of scottkacsmar
063_1364444791-aspect-ratio-16-9
DeMar DeRozan #11 of the Chicago Bulls. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

The Golden State Warriors (30-11) and Chicago Bulls (27-12) look to shake off ugly losses this Friday evening on ESPN. The Bulls allowed a season-high 138 points to Brooklyn in a 26-point loss on Wednesday night. Last night, the Warriors lost 118-99 in Milwaukee. Let’s break down the NBA odds for this game.

Golden State Warriors vs. Chicago Bulls

Friday, January 14, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at United Center

The Bulls (23-16 ATS) are a 3.5-point favorite over the Warriors (23-16-2 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. The Warriors are 4-2 SU as an underdog of at least 2.5 points this season, but Chicago is still the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. However, the Bulls have already lost to the Warriors by 26 points two months ago.

Last Meeting: Warriors 119, Bulls 93

When these teams met in Golden State on November 12th, the Warriors were almost flawless at 10-1 to start the season. Stephen Curry exploded that night for 40 points, setting or tying his season-high in threes made (nine) and plus-minus (plus-31).

In comparison, Chicago point guard Lonzo Ball scored five points in one of his worst games of the season. The Bulls had one of their lousiest three-point shooting games of the season, finishing 8-of-27 from behind the arc.

The Bulls led 29-23 after the first quarter, but Curry began to heat up in the second and the Warriors had one of their classic third-quarter blowouts at home with a 35-17 advantage. The Bulls trailed by at least 20 points for the entire fourth quarter.

Chicago was not whole that night as Coby White, a key bench contributor, was out. In the last 12 games since White’s return from injury, the Bulls are 10-2 and he is shooting 51.6% from the field and 45.8% from three.

More importantly that night, center Nikola Vucevic was in the first game of what would be a seven-game absence that saw the Bulls go 4-3. The Warriors were plus-9 in rebounds that night, a position the Bulls rarely find themselves in this season.

Chicago also turned the ball over 20 times, something it has only done in one other game this season. Chicago has the eighth-lowest turnover rate in the league while the Warriors rank 29th in that stat. Golden State had 16 turnovers against Chicago, but it was moot with how well Curry shot the ball.

Any team is going to struggle when Curry shoots that well. The Warriors are 12-1 this season when Curry scores at least 30 points, but the efficiency split this year is even more impressive. The Warriors are 22-0 when Curry shoots at least 40% from the field. He has been under 39% the last two games and the Warriors lost to the Grizzlies and Bucks.

A Tough Week

The Bulls and Warriors have two of the three best records in the NBA right now, but this has been a difficult week for both. Chicago has lost two of its last three games. The Bulls were outshined by Luka Doncic’s triple-double for the Mavericks in a 113-99 loss.

Kevin Durant (27 points and nine assists) and James Harden (25 points and 16 assists) dominated the Bulls on Wednesday night in a 138-112 loss. The Bulls had only allowed 120 points once all season (122 to Washington), so the 138 was by far a season-worst game.

DeMar DeRozan has had a great season for the Bulls, but he has not scored more than 20 points in any of the last four games. He was averaging 28.5 points per game since Thanksgiving prior to this little slump. DeRozan was a season-worst minus-24 against the Nets.

Golden State has actually lost four of its last five games. That does include some tough road losses to quality opponents: Dallas with Doncic back, Memphis on an 11-game winning streak, and Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple-double in Milwaukee last night.

But despite Sunday’s return to action for Klay Thompson, the Warriors are slumping right now. Thompson is still trying to find his way back after missing the last couple of seasons with devastating injuries.

Draymond Green’s calf injury has been keeping him out of action and the Warriors are missing his all-around impact on both sides of the court. Green will miss this game too. But the Warriors were absolutely embarrassed in Milwaukee last night in a way we have not seen this season.

Milwaukee led 77-38 at halftime. Golden State shot 34.7% from the field, by far the team’s worst game of the season and one of the lowest games for any team this year. The good news? None of the starters had to play 30 minutes in that blowout, so there should be less fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back.

But the Warriors are definitely going through their roughest patch of the season, so Chicago could be catching them at the right time. The Bulls are also 9-4 ATS with a rest advantage this season, the third-best record in the league. Golden State is only 9-10-1 ATS as a road team.

Prediction

The Warriors are 22-0 this season when they shoot at least 47% from the field and 21-0 when they score at least 110 points. Every team that’s beaten the Warriors has done it by forcing the offense into a weak night.

Lately, most of the nights have been cold with the Warriors shooting under 43% in their last five games. With Green still out, I like the Bulls to recover from their Brooklyn loss and get this cover for your Friday NBA picks.

NBA Pick: Bulls -4 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Bulls -4 (-110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.