The NBA odds look good for the Golden State Warriors, but will the Dallas Mavericks help them go Under this Tuesday in Texas?
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, November 29, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at American Airlines Center
Are the good times over? We’ve been on quite a betting rush here at the ranch these past few months, but our most recent NBA picks have blown up in our faces, none worse than our underdog-Under combo for Sunday’s game between the Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks. Final score: Dallas 115 - Milwaukee 124 (Over 216.5), with the Bucks cashing in as 6-point favorites.
We definitely want to keep the faith with the Under for Tuesday’s matchup between Dallas and the Golden State Warriors. BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has a 227-point total on their NBA odds board, and while we were reticent to throw too much money at Sunday’s game, this Under calls for the standard one-unit wager.
Will we put the underdog in our combo again? We can’t because there is no underdog to bet on; Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) have this game as a pick’em on their NBA lines. But we do like Golden State for another unit at this price. Let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and find out why.
What Happened to the Warriors?
They lost all their bench players. We were skeptical about Golden State’s title chances heading into the 2021-22 campaign, but then again, who knew Gary Payton II (plus-3.7 BPM, now with Portland) would end up second on the team in Box Plus/Minus? Or that Otto Porter Jr. (plus-3.1 BPM, now with Toronto) would be fourth?
Then you have 3 more useful reserves that aren’t around this year:
- Andre Iguodala (plus-2.7 BPM)
- Nemanja Bjelica (plus-1.4 BPM)
- Juan Toscano-Anderson (minus-0.8 BPM)
Technically, Iguodala is still with the Warriors, but his left hip is all messed up; he hasn’t even put in a full scrimmage yet, but will reportedly be ready at some point during the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Bjelica is playing in Turkey for Fenerbahce, and Toscano-Anderson is carrying water for the Los Angeles Lakers.
In their place go the 3 young players Golden State really needed to step up this year:
- James Wiseman (minus-2.6 BPM)
- Moses Moody (minus-4.6 BPM)
- Jonathan Kuminga (minus-6.9 BPM)
Sweet baby corn, that’s not good. Wiseman has already been sent back to the G-League for seasoning, but sophomores Moody and Kuminga need it even more. For that matter, so does Jordan Poole (minus-3.2 BPM), whose shooting prowess only partially masks his inefficiency on offense, to say nothing of his defensive shortcomings.
What Happened to the Mavericks?
We might happily fade Golden State (11-10 SU, 9-12 ATS) versus just about any other team, but the Mavericks (9-10 SU, 4-14-1 ATS) are very much in our doghouse. Our attempt at “buying low” last Sunday was rebuffed; 6 different Bucks scored in double digits, while Dallas had very little to offer beyond their “Big Three” of Luka Doncic (27 points), Spencer Dinwiddie (22) and, Christian Wood (21).
Apparently, the Mavs have finally decided Doncic needs some more help. And he might get it from Kemba Walker, who’s expected to sign with Dallas in the very near future. Walker (plus-0.4 BPM) actually didn’t play that poorly for the New York Knicks last year before falling out of their rotation, but he is somewhat limited by chronic knee issues that have taken the bounce out of his step.
Anyway, Walker presumably won’t be active Tuesday, which still leaves Dallas with one effective “creator” in Doncic (plus - 10.4 BPM), and not much else. It is what it is.
Can Anyone Here Play Defense?
Sort of. With Payton, Porter, and others signing elsewhere in free agency, the Warriors (Over 12-7-2) have plummeted from first to 21st place in defensive efficiency, giving up 110.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s almost 7 points more than last year.
Dallas (Over 11-8) has gotten worse on defense, too. They’ve slipped from No. 6 (106.8) to No. 15 (109.3) in defensive efficiency; maybe sending Kristaps Porzingis (plus-0.8 defensive BPM) to Washington last year wasn’t the cure-all it appeared to be at first.
We’re still willing to throw some cash at the Under, though. Dallas operates at the slowest pace in the entire NBA: a glacial 97.3 possessions per game. Golden State is first at 105.3 possessions, almost 5 full possessions more than last year’s veteran squad, but with that increased volume comes increased inefficiency.
Factor in Dallas playing their third game in 4 days, and yes, we’ll buy the Warriors and the Under for a dollar each for our NBA picks, thank you kindly.
For residents of the Golden State looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top California betting sites.
NBA Pick: Warriors -1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.