The Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat have both started the season with a losing record. Which team will get back on track in Tuesday’s matchup in Miami? Here’s our best bet for this intriguing matchup.
Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, November 1, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at FTX Arena
The Golden State Warriors are looking to get back to .500 against a 2-5 Miami Heat team.
Both of these teams had high expectations coming into the year. However, the Warriors and Heat haven’t played consistent basketball to begin the year. Granted, it’s early on in the season. There’s still plenty of basketball to be played. But we’re just not used to seeing these two teams struggle.
Fortunately, one of these below .500 teams will earn a win tonight. Which team will it be? Here are our NBA picks and predictions for tonight’s NBA matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat.
When Heat Has the Ball
The Miami Heat have scored just 111.3 points per 100 possessions this season. They’re getting to the foul line at a high rate, with a free throw rate of 24.3. The Heat have also turned the ball over just 14% of the time, which is above average.
The Heat hasn't shot a highly effective field goal percentage and hasn’t had much success on the offensive glass. Miami is shooting a 52.2% effective field goal percentage and has earned just over 25% of offensive rebounds. Both of those numbers are bottom ten in the NBA.
Jimmy Butler has led the Heat with 21.3 points per game. He’s averaging 49% from the field and 85.2% from the foul line. Tyler Herro is scoring close to 20% per game, with Bam Adebayo averaging 17.4 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Warriors haven’t looked very good defensively. They’ve allowed 114.7 points per 100 possessions while giving up a 53.4% effective field goal percentage.
Golden State is good at forcing turnovers, but Miami should be able to limit Golden State in that category. And while the Heat has struggled on the offensive glass, the Warriors haven’t been much better on the defensive glass.
When Warriors Have the Ball
The Golden State Warriors are only scoring 113.9 points per 100 possessions. However, they’re still shooting a 54.8% effective field goal percentage. The Warriors will get more high-quality looks from the field in this game against the Heat.
However, Golden State needs to limit the turnovers if they want a chance at winning this game. They’ve allowed 15.2% of turnovers this season, while the Heat has earned 16.7% of turnovers. If the Warriors are sloppy with the ball, the Heat will make Golden State pay. The Warriors are pretty average regarding offensive rebounding and free throw rate.
Meanwhile, the Heat are just as average in allowing offensive rebounds and free throws. The Warriors no longer have minute restrictions for their best players. Steph Curry has still led the way with 31 points per game. The second-highest scorer on the team is Jordan Poole, with 17.9 points.
Klay Thompson’s having a poor start to the season, with just 12.3 points per game with 25 minutes per game. The Warriors have also struggled on the glass bad enough that Steph Curry leads the team with 6.7 rebounds per game. With James Wiseman and Kevon Looney getting minutes, that’s hard to believe.
Prediction and Pick
The Warriors will need to limit turnovers first and foremost. If they continue to turn the ball over at a high rate, the Heat will get more opportunities from the floor. However, if the Warriors keep turnovers down, they’ll get the higher quality looks from the field.
On the other hand, the Heat should end up getting to the foul line at a higher rate. They’re not scoring at a high rate lately, but should be able to win the turnover battle against a Warriors team that is also pretty good at forcing turnovers.
However, right now, Miami is shooting a 52.2% effective field goal percentage on the year, while the Warriors have shot a 54.8% effective field goal percentage.
I’ll take the team getting the better looks from the floor. The game plan for the Warriors will look to try and limit turnovers and fouls. If they do those two things well enough, they’ll earn the win against the Heat.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.