NBA Pick: Grizzlies +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Memphis Grizzlies continue life without All-Star Ja Morant on Thursday night when they host Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors in a national TV game.
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Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Thursday, March 09, 2023 – 07:30 PM EST at FedExForum
What You Should Know
It’s an unusual 07:30 PM tipoff local time (Eastern) from Memphis on Thursday as the Grizzlies host the Golden State Warriors in the first game of a TNT doubleheader – that’s why the start time. The second game is Knicks at Kings, and we also have a preview of that here at BMR.
This is the third of four regular-season meetings between these teams, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see them face off in the playoffs – Steph Curry vs. Ja Morant? Yes, please. Golden State won the first two, both at home: 123-109 on Christmas and 122-120 on Jan. 25.
Curry played in one of the two and had 34 points. Jordan Poole is averaging 26.5 ppg in the two. He and Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. were high school teammates in their senior season at La Lumiere School, in La Porte, Indiana. Yet neither went to play at Indiana as Poole went to Michigan and Jackson to Michigan State. Morant averaged 32.5 ppg and 10.0 assists in the first two but won’t play tonight.
Memphis is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings on the NBA odds.
Warriors Shockingly Bad on Road
I’ve never played in the NBA but I get how home-court advantage is important because players don’t have to travel, get to keep their normal routines and perhaps most important, they are used to the background from a shooting perspective. Trust me, a weird background in a gym can mess with opposing players.
So it makes sense the Warriors aren’t as good on the road as at home, but 7-25 away!? Only the tanking Rockets and Spurs and fewer road wins. Golden State has lost seven straight road games, the third-longest such skid under Steve Kerr.
The Warriors have a .794 winning percentage at home and a .219 road winning percentage, a difference of .575. That would be among the worst such splits in league history. At home, the Warriors average 119.4 ppg on 48.1% shooting and allowing 111.6 ppg. On the road, the Warriors average 116.8 ppg on 47.0% shooting but allow a whopping 123.6 ppg.
Golden State has a 25-4 overall this season when opponents score less than 115 points. The league average for scoring is 114.4 points per game, the highest since 1969-70 (116.7 ppg).
Needless to say, the Dubs aren’t repeating if they don’t fix their road woes as they will not have home-court advantage in any playoff series – if they make it. Golden State currently sits sixth in the West and is -650 at the best California betting sites to make the playoffs and +450 to miss.
Steph Curry returned from his long injury absence on Sunday and has looked good in totaling 67 points and 13 assists in the two games, but Golden State lost them both: 113-105 at the Lakers on Sunday and 137-128 at Oklahoma City on Tuesday. The Dubs shot 52.8% from the field and hit 20 three-pointers – the league-leading 20th time they made at least 20 – against the Thunder and still were largely dominated.
Klay Thompson had 23 points in Tuesday’s loss and since New Year’s Day is averaging 25.6 points per game. He is second in the NBA in three-pointers made (235), trailing Indiana’s Buddy Hield (246). Thompson is second in average makes per game at 4.4 and Curry leads at 5.0.
- Warriors are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis.
- Warriors are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
Grizzlies Still Short-Handed
Some not great news out of Memphis regarding star Ja Morant and center Steven Adams. Morant is physically healthy but getting some mental help in the wake of all his off-the-court issues in recent months and has been ruled out by the team for at least four more games. Morant was cleared of all charges by Glendale (Colo.) Police Department for bringing a gun to a strip club last week, but he could still potentially face discipline from the NBA.
The Grizz are 4-7 without Morant this season, but the clear beneficiary when he sits is Tyus Jones. He starts when Morant doesn’t play and is averaging 19.1 points, 7.6 assists, and 3.5 rebounds in those 11. Jones, who has led the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio in each of the last four seasons, would start for many teams full-time.
Adams, one of the league’s top rebounders and arguably its best offensive rebounder, hasn’t played since Jan. 22 due to a knee issue. He recently received a stem cell injection in his right knee and will be re-evaluated in four weeks. That clearly means his regular season is over (Grizzlies’ finale is April 9) and his status for the start of the playoffs is in jeopardy.
The team also lost rotation player Brandon Clarke recently to a season-ending injury. Thus, I could see the Grizzlies sliding from their current spot of tied for second in the West to fourth – although some of that depends on the latest injury suffered by Kevin Durant with the Suns, who are fourth currently and two games behind Memphis.
- Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
- Grizzlies are 40-17-1 ATS in their last 58 home games.
Like Golden State, the Grizzlies are truly horrid away (12-21) but very good at home (26-5). That .839 home winning percentage would be the best in franchise history. Just looking at both starting lineups on paper, the Warriors should win. Maybe they do. However, I have to take 3 points with those home/road splits.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
NBA Prop Pick: Tyus Jones Over 27.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.