The Boston Celtics are one win away from returning to the NBA Finals, but the top-seeded Miami Heat still have a chance to extend this Eastern Conference Finals on Friday evening.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Friday, May 27, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at TD Garden
Jayson Tatum Prop Analysis
This has been a difficult series for both teams with a lot of nagging injuries and disappointing play.
But if there is a player who can seize the moment and play well in Game 6, it should be the 24-year-old Jayson Tatum, who is one win away from his first NBA Finals.
Tatum was only 7-of-20 from the field in Game 5, and he is shooting 18.2% from three over the last three games.
But in his last home game, he scored a series-high 31 points on this tough Miami defense. He also had 27 and 29 points in the first two games of this series.
Jayson Tatum Game 6 Expectations
Game 6 at home is a great opportunity for Tatum to shine and deliver another signature moment for his career.
Just as a precaution for how much this series has loved blowouts, we are going to use an alternate scoring line instead of Tatum’s over 27.5 points and go with him to score at least 26 points to start our NBA parlay.
Tatum has scored at least 26 points in 10 of his 16 playoff games this year.
NBA Pick: Jayson Tatum to Score At Least 26 Points (-244) with Bovada
Al Horford Prop Analysis
In his 26th playoff series, Al Horford is one win away from his first NBA Finals. He has been very valuable to Boston this postseason in a variety of ways.
One of his best attributes is rebounding. He opened this series with a surprise scratch for a positive COVID test followed by a quiet game in his return.
But in the two home games, Horford had 14 and 13 rebounds. Through a series of injuries and fatigue, the Miami offense has cratered, especially on three-point shooting.
The Heat shot a season-low 33.3% from the field in Game 4, then turned around and went home and shot even worse (31.9%) in Game 5.
Miami is the first team to shoot this poorly in back-to-back playoff games since the 2010 Bucks.
Are There Rebound Opportunities for Horford in Game 6?
What this means is there should be plenty of rebound opportunities available for Horford once again.
Of his eight games, this postseason with 10 or more rebounds, six of them has come at home.
The Celtics are in a great position to dominate this Miami offense again, and Horford only needs nine rebounds to hit his over.
NBA Pick: Al Horford Over 8.5 Rebounds (-132) with Bovada
Marcus Smart Prop Analysis
An ankle injury once again has Boston point guard Marcus Smart listed as questionable.
He has already missed Games 1 and 4 of this series, but there is optimism that he’ll play on Friday night and his props are listed in all of the sportsbooks.
Smart played just 23:42 of Game 5, his least amount of action in any playoff game this year, but that could have been driven by the score margin as much as managing his injury.
He still had four assists in that time on a night where Boston only scored 93 points as this series limps to the finish line. But Smart had 12 assists earlier this series and seven assists in his other game.
Marcus Smart Game 6 Expectations
He is more than capable of hitting his over (5.5 assists) in this game should he play enough.
We are going to assume that the Celtics play well and get the best of Miami again, so Smart playing enough to get at least six assists is the final leg for our Boston-heavy parlay.
NBA Pick: Marcus Smart Over 5.5 Assists (-104) with Bovada
- Jayson Tatum to Score At Least 26 Points (-244)
- Al Horford Over 8.5 Rebounds (-132)
- Marcus Smart Over 5.5 Assists (-104)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.