The NBA playoffs continue this Friday evening with Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. We are going to build a three-leg NBA parlay from this game using player prop picks with NBA odds from Bovada, a BMR’s top-rated sportsbook.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, May 20, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Luka Doncic Prop Analysis
You have to trust a great player to bounce back strong after a terrible game. By all accounts, Luka Doncic had the worst playoff game of his career in Game 1. His six field goals, 33.3% shooting, seven turnovers, and minus-30 in plus-minus are all career worsts in a playoff game for him.
Fortunately, Doncic has bounced back before in the playoffs. In the four instances where he scored under 25 points in a playoff game, he came back his next game and scored 43, 38, 42, and 45 points. Doncic already has six 40-point playoff games, matching the career total of the much older Steph Curry.
Doncic’s points line is 31.5 points in Game 2. Doncic has scored at least 32 points in 12 of his 24 playoff games, which is a remarkable percentage.
While it does make the bet look like a true coin flip, you have to believe Doncic is going to bring his ‘A’ game for this one, or else the Mavericks might be halfway towards getting swept if their superstar cannot find his shot.
NBA Pick: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-121) with Bovada
Jordan Poole Prop Analysis
The Warriors had an interesting Game 1 on offense as they shot 67.9% from two-point territory and only 34.5% from three. It was also only the third game this season where the Warriors attempted fewer than 30 threes.
Jordan Poole had a strong game with 19 points, but he played right into those percentages for the Warriors. Poole was 1-for-4 from three and 7-for-8 from two-point territory. The three-point shot has not been too consistent for Poole in his first postseason.
In the last four games, he is shooting a poor 19.0% from three (4-for-21). In his first eight playoff games, he was shooting 46.2% from three, similar to the 42.6% he shot in the final 20 games of the regular season, a stretch that began with his 23-point game in Dallas.
Poole is a good player and the Warriors are going to shoot more threes in this game. Poole only needs to sink two of them to hit his over in threes, which is a total he surpassed in over 70% of his games this season.
NBA Pick: Jordan Poole Over 1.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made (-157) with Bovada
Spencer Dinwiddie Prop Analysis
The Mavericks had a rough performance in Game 1, but Spencer Dinwiddie was the second-leading scorer behind Doncic with 17 points. He has made 13 threes in the last three games, but let’s take a closer look at his assists.
Before coming over to Dallas during the season, Dinwiddie was averaging 5.8 assists per game for Washington. That number dropped to 3.9 in Dallas with the way Doncic controls the ball so much. In the playoffs, Dinwiddie is averaging 3.4 assists per game.
Dinwiddie only had two assists in Game 1 against Golden State, but that was not for a lack of trying. According to the NBA, Dallas teammates were 2-for-10 shooting on Dinwiddie’s potential assists. That poor ratio of 20% should be closer to 50% on a good offense. Dinwiddie’s 10 potential assists trailed only Doncic (15) in the game.
With Dinwiddie’s assists line set to 2.5 in Game 2, he looks like a good value pick for the over to hit. Dinwiddie had at least three assists in 55 of 67 games in the regular season and in eight of his 14 playoff games. For our NBA picks, let’s count on him to do it again.
NBA Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 2.5 Assists (-167) with Bovada
Mavericks vs. Warriors Parlay Picks
- Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-121)
- Jordan Poole Over 1.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made (-157)
- Spencer Dinwiddie Over 2.5 Assists (-167)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.