Timberwolves vs. Warriors NBA Odds, Preview and Prediction

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Anthony Edwards #1 of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

The NBA odds are pretty tight for Thursday’s tilt between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors. Is the total too high?

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors

Thursday, January 27, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Chase Center

I love it when a plan comes together. We thought the Minnesota Timberwolves might be worth fading this past Tuesday – especially if Anthony Edwards didn’t suit up against the Portland Trail Blazers. But he did, and Edwards dumped 40 points on Portland. Not to worry: The Blazers still covered as 3-point home dogs in their 109-107 defeat. Huzzah~!

Things get a bit more complicated for Thursday’s matchup between Minnesota (24-23 SU, 23-23-1 ATS) and the Golden State Warriors (35-13 SU, 26-19-3 ATS). As we go to press, the fine folks at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) have Golden State listed as 5-point home favorites on their NBA odds board, down from –5.5 at the open; FiveThirtyEight project the Dubs to win by five points. Looks like we’ll be hammering that 228-point total instead.

Greenwashing

But which side do we take? Overall, the Warriors have made the Under very profitable this year at 29-18-1, thanks to their emphasis on defensive play. Sadly, Golden State’s best defender, Draymond Green, is out of commission with calf and back issues. The Over is 5-4 since Green last played.

On the flip side, the Wolves (Over 26-21) have the Over at 8-2 in their past 10 games, thanks in no small part to Edwards, who has developed into a premium scorer alongside Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell. Curiously, those three players only combined for 42 points the last time these teams met on January 16, but it was still enough to make the Over the right NBA pick when Minnesota prevailed 119-99 (Over 215) as 5-point home faves. Very interesting indeed.

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Too Much Curry

You may have noticed the big difference in totals between that game and this. The Wolves had almost all their players available for that first contest; Golden State were without Stephen Curry, who’s kind of important. Is Curry worth 13 points to the final score, though? His plus-5.6 offensive Box Plus/Minus at Basketball Reference suggests otherwise.

Let’s not overlook Curry’s understudy in the backcourt. Jordan Poole (minus-0.4 OBPM) started alongside Klay Thompson in Minneapolis and led the team with 20 points, albeit on 5-of-13 shooting. Also, Gary Payton II (plus-3.7 defensive BPM) didn’t play that game, but he’s back in the lineup now, and the Under is 3-2 since his return.

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This is ultimately why we’re going to buck Minnesota’s recent trend and recommend the Under instead. The NBA lines appear to have moved way too far in response to Curry, while ignoring the impact Payton has had on Golden State’s defense. And while noted defender Patrick Beverley (ankle) is iffy for Minnesota, his replacement in the starting lineup, Jaden McDaniels (minus-4.2 OBPM), is a black hole on offense. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

NBA Pick: Under 228 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 228 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.