Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA Best Bets Today (April 1)

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Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets handles the ball. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

A tough stretch for the Minnesota Timberwolves continues on Friday as they head into the Mile High City to play the Denver Nuggets. Let’s see what the NBA odds for this matchup tell us!

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets

Friday, April 01, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Ball Arena

Nuggets Look To Step on Wolves’ Necks

As mentioned above, the Wolves have been through a rough stretch lately. They probably knew this was coming, but after an impressive run this season which had them either in or knocking on the top six in the West’s door, the Wolves have run into a stretch where they play seven straight playoff teams and things have not gone well.

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They have reached the seventh game and they are going to have a losing record over those seven, regardless of what happens tonight.

In a tight race for the Western playoff seeding, the Wolves have been knocked three full games behind the Nuggets for the 6th seed and an avoidance of the play-in tournament.

While Minnesota could still make up that ground, if they lose tonight, it’s over for them avoiding the play-in tourney.

Add in the fact that after they beat the Bucks to start this seven-game stretch, they have played pretty poorly outside of their win at home over the Mavs.

In the other four games, the Wolves have been outscored by 56 points. Now they have to play a Nuggets team that is deadly at home.

Denver is averaging 115.4 points per 100 possessions at home, which is the sixth-best in the NBA.

Their first-half numbers at home have been even more impressive, scoring 119.3 points per 100 possessions, or third best in the NBA.

The Sharp Picks

I’ve gone over the Wolves’ impressive home defense a lot in these NBA picks articles, but their road defense tends to fall apart.

It’s one of the reasons we’ve seen this total sky-rocket since it opened in the 230s. Now it’s 243.5 points and 250 or more points would not surprise me here.

That being said, if this total follows the steam and still cashes over after moving almost 10 full points from the opening line, it will be because of the Nuggets.

Minnesota’s road defense in the first half is allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 26th in the league.

Their full-game road defense is a little better, but a veteran team like Denver isn’t going to let the Wolves breathe here if they fall behind early, something they routinely do on the road.

For my best bets, I fully expect the Nuggets to clamp down on defense while taking advantage of a waning Wolves defense.

With the way the Wolves have been playing lately, I think Denver grabs the lead before the half, doesn’t let go, and sends the Wolves to plan for the play-in tournament.

The Nuggets also have a lot of motivation to try and win out considering they are only two games out of the third seed.

A loss here would really hurt their chances of grabbing home-court advantage in the first round.

NBA Pick: Nuggets -1.5 1st Half (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Nuggets -1.5 1st Half (-110)
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NBA Pick: Nuggets -3 (-110) with Bovada

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Nuggets -3 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.