Suns vs. Mavericks NBA Playoffs Game 6 Predictions and Pick

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The Phoenix Suns were the right NBA pick in Game 5, but the Dallas Mavericks look good for Thursday’s Game 6 at home. 

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks 

Thursday, May 12, 2022 – 09:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center 

Game 5 Betting Recap

Never sweat the results when you’re betting on basketball. You’ll just end up pulling your hair out when things don’t go your way – like when the Dallas Mavericks shot 8-for-32 (25 percent) from downtown in Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal versus the Phoenix Suns. 

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Oh sure, that myopic performance helped our NBA picks when Phoenix prevailed 110-80 as 7-point home faves on the closing line. But we also had the 'over', which was the right choice in the first two games of this series at the Footprint Center. The Suns did their part, as advertised; Dallas couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat. 

Game 6 NBA Odds Breakdown

Anyway, hair still somewhat intact, we turn our attention to Game 6 this Thursday. They’ll be back in Big D with the Mavericks down 3-2 and on the brink of elimination.

The Mavericks opened as 2-point underdogs on the NBA odds board and remain there at press time, and given how this series has played out, we’re going to join the 59 percent consensus of early bettors on Dallas. 

We could try hammering that total again, of course. The consensus reports at press time show 100 percent for the 'under' on the total of 212 points, down from 214 when they first opened shop at Bovada.

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The 'under' was the right call for Games 3 and 4 in Dallas, but now that the sharps have gotten their fill, there isn’t much value left on that Game 6 total – the lowest of the entire series thus far. 

That spread hasn’t moved yet, though. And with the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight projecting Dallas to win by a half-point, we’re more than happy to ride that ZigZag Theory and switch our bet to the home side. 

Suns vs. Mavs Game 6 Betting Pick

The developments from Game 5 should help us out. There’s a good chance Jae Crowder suffered a separated shoulder for Phoenix in Tuesday’s victory; if Crowder can’t play Thursday, the Suns will be without one of their top defenders, which will put more pressure on bench players like Bismack Biyombo to step up. 
 
Granted, the Mavericks are also unsure whether Reggie Bullock (knee) will be able to play Thursday after leaving Game 5, but that’s not nearly as damaging for Dallas as Crowder’s absence would be for Phoenix – even if Frank Ntilikina has to soak up some of those backcourt minutes for the Mavs. 

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The important thing here is that Dallas will be at home with their backs up against the wall, and the way the officiating has been thus far, we expect a kind whistle for the Mavericks as they use their size and physicality to grind Phoenix down to a nub. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you. 

Final Score Prediction: Suns 105 | Mavericks 106 

NBA Pick: Dallas Mavericks +2 (–108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review

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Dallas Mavericks +2 (–108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.