The NBA is back and it’s time to start cashing! We’re headed out west for the matchup between the Phoenix Suns who host the Denver Nuggets. The Suns made a huge leap last year, going from not making the playoffs for a decade to the NBA Finals. While they didn’t win the big prize, they do have reason to be optimistic moving forward. Let’s break this game down to see if we can find some value here.
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
All season long, the Suns cashed tickets for those of us that were paying attention early. For myself personally, it was the team I cashed with the most by far. They were 55-38-1 against the spread (ATS) with only the Clippers as the only other team in the league to reach 50 ATS wins on the season. While I’m not sure they can repeat that feat, I do think they will be one of the best teams in the league again this season. I don’t expect odds makers to continue to undervalue them and this opening line is an indication of that.
This line opened at -6 for the Suns in the NBA odds board at most of the top online sportsbooks and to me, that seems a bit high. At this number, even with the absence of Jamal Murray, the Nuggets aren’t two full possessions worse than Phoenix. It’s way too early in the season for us to assume that the Suns will pick up right where they left off.
The Nuggets are missing their second best player but I still think they will finish top four in the western conference. I say that based on a few different factors. The first is their continuity which is an advantage they have over teams in the league. They have 9 of their top 10 rotation guys and have had the same coach for the evolution and development of these players. The second reason is actually the absence of Murray.
They are worse without him but at the same time, he has regularly been underwhelming in the regular season. He seems to rise to the occasion when it comes to the playoffs which is always what you want from your best players but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that they didn’t really regress once he went down with injury. His absence has also opened the door for Michael Porter Jr. to take the leap that he needed. Without Murray, he had to accelerate his development and that has worked out better than anyone could have expected.
Finally, there’s the reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic. I know Kristaps Porzingis is called the "Unicorn" but the reality is, that name is way more suited to Jokic. He is perhaps the most unique player in NBA history and the Nuggets all the better for it. With the same group of teammates he’s had for years, I think the Nuggets keep this very close and I will add them to my
NBA Pick: Nuggets +6 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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