Nuggets vs. Clippers Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick

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Eric Bledsoe #12 of the LA Clippers dribbles the ball against Jeff Green #32 of the Denver Nuggets. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

How will the Clippers respond without Paul George on the hardwood against the Nuggets on Sunday?

Let’s see what the NBA odds for this matchup tell us!

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Sunday, December 26, 2021 – 09:00 PM EST at Crypto.com Arena

Betting Preview

The Denver Nuggets are back under .500 after two deflating losses to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets. Against the Thunder, the Nuggets were never really in that game but the Nuggets followed that game up with a huge second-half choke against the Hornets.

Now the Nuggets will play a road game against the Los Angeles Clippers, who will be without Paul George for at least three weeks with a torn UCL. The Clippers are now currently without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. This means that the Clippers’ key players are now Terance Mann and Eric Bledsoe.

Betting Analysis

With George, the defense had been terrific this season and there’s no reason why the defense should get that much worse without him on the floor. The Clippers allow 106.2 points per 100 possessions this season while allowing opponents to shoot just a 50.2 percent effective field goal percentage. The Clippers have also done very well limiting fouls and keeping teams off the foul line. On the other hand, the Nuggets rarely see the line, to begin with, so this favors the Clippers.

Denver has also struggled to earn offensive rebounds on missed shots this season and while the Clippers haven’t been great on the defensive glass, Los Angeles also has the advantage on the glass on the defensive side of the ball.

However, it’s been hard for the Clippers to find consistent scoring. This season, Los Angeles has scored 107 points per 100 possessions with just a 52.6 percent effective field goal percentage. The Clippers, like the Nuggets, have struggled on the glass, and also aren’t major threats at getting to the line.

The Nuggets have also limited fouls on the defensive end, which means that this game will likely flow a bit. Offensive rebounds will be hard to come by and neither team is really lighting it up offensively or getting quality looks consistently.

Expert Pick

Therefore, with the Paul George news, I’ll go ahead and take the under 212. The Nuggets haven’t played great defense, but Los Angeles won’t have a consistent offense. They’ll have to rely on Mann, Bledsoe, and maybe Serge Ibaka to score some points in this game.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets seem to always have that one quarter or one half where things just don’t go as planned. How is a Jokic-led team still under .500? I get that Jamal Murray is out and other injuries have derailed this team, but to lose consecutive games to the Hornets and Thunder is just unacceptable if you’re Denver.

Both teams are below average in points per 100 possessions and both defenses have kept their opponents off the foul line consistently this season. There’s a great chance that we also don’t see many second-chance opportunities and both teams are going to force a whole lot of turnovers. I like the under here for my NBA pick.

NBA Pick: Under 212 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 212 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.