NBA Underdog of the Day (May 11): Which Team is on Upset Alert?

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The Memphis Grizzlies head back home facing elimination on Wednesday. They’ll once again be without their star point guard, so is it over, or will Memphis get the win tonight at home? Below, we’ll break down the NBA odds and share a winning underdog pick!

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies 

Wednesday, May 11, 2022 – 09:30 PM EDT at FedExForum

Ja Morant Out for Playoffs 

The Grizzlies’ season was one to remember. Pegged as one of the last few teams into the playoffs, or even a lottery team by some, the Grizzlies clawed and fought their way through the Western Conference and into the 2nd overall seed. 

Not since the Grit and Grind Grizzlies have we seen a Memphis team this high in the playoff standings and in some ways (but not all) this version of the Grizzlies has a lot more upside and NBA Finals potential than that 2010s group ever did. Ja Morant is a big reason why, but he’ll be out for Game 5 and the rest of the postseason.  

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That being said, the newly established dynasty in West Tennessee is up against a much more established dynasty. One that has reloaded and reshaped since their glory days, but one that is much more seasoned and battle-tested and is as good as they’ve been since making five straight NBA Finals and winning three of them.  

Clichés aside, it’s a forgone conclusion that Golden State will win this series, but the Grizzlies have one more last punch to throw in them tonight.   

They threw it last game and it nearly landed on the road. They easily covered as +10.5 underdogs in Game 4 and now back at home where the Grizzlies are very dangerous, they are the best underdog of the day.  

What's the Warriors vs. Grizzlies Underdog Pick?

After they won their first NBA Championship in 2015, the Warriors have been a public darling ever since then. All the joes love betting on them regardless of opponent, situation, or venue.  

We played that to our advantage in Game 4 and easily covered in a spread that had no business being double figures and I’m ready to do it again tonight in a slightly different situation.  

Memphis ranks fifth-best among playoff teams in home defense, allowing the Warriors and Wolves to average just 105.5 points per 100 possessions across five games from FedExForum.  

During the regular season, they ranked seventh-best in home defense as well and as I mentioned two nights ago, the Grizzlies get better defensively with Morant off the court.  

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The venue changed to Memphis, plus the collective effort from the defense and home crowd should be enough for Memphis to keep this game within one possession regardless if they come out on top or not.  

During the regular season, Golden State’s defensive rating went from 103.6 at home to 109.7 on the road. While defensive regression away from home is common, a jump of six full points per 100 possessions is a lot.  

At home in the regular season, the Warriors had a net rating of nearly +10 full points, whereas on the road it was a measly +1.2 points.  

NBA Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +4 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review

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Memphis Grizzlies +4 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.