NBA player props sure are a lot of fun – when you get them right. The Orlando Magic messed up last week’s 3-pack of NBA props, which were all about taking the Under for points scored by Orlando’s big men as they prepared to face Sacramento Kings center (and rebounder extraordinaire) Domantas Sabonis.
The logic was sound, and the potential profit margin was there, but Paolo Banchero (33 points), Franz Wagner (31) and Wendell Carter Jr. (17) all beat their projections for the night – and the overtime frame didn’t even factor into it. Final score: Kings 126, Magic 123.
Undeterred, we’ve got three more tasty props lined up for this Saturday’s NBA picks. We begin in La-La Land with one of the league’s most gifted athletes; he also happens to have a slight case of the butterfingers.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 04:00 PM EST at Crypto.com Arena
Clippers' Paul George
- Over 3.5 Turnovers
The player in question is Paul George, and yes, those fingers are indeed coated in buttery goodness. As we go to press, George ranks fourth in the NBA with 41 turnovers, which works out to 3.7 per game. Taking Over 3.5 turnovers this Saturday for a payday of around +125 seems like a no-brainer.
At least it does until you see George’s projection of 3.06 turnovers at FantasyData. But we’re willing to look past that. Kawhi Leonard (knee) reportedly won’t play again Saturday, so George’s usage rate should climb a bit higher than the 30.8% (No. 14 overall) he’s logged on the season, a figure that includes the two games Leonard did manage to get in.
This is also one of those infamous weekend matinee affairs, which tend to be sloppier than usual. Players really, really hate messing up their routines for these games. And George will be dealing with a Brooklyn team that will presumably give it the proverbial 110% for new head coach Jacque Vaughn after throwing Steve Nash under the bus.
We should add that the Nets are eighth in the league at forcing turnovers (on 13.5% of plays), although that should already be baked into the projections. They got PF Julius Randle to cough up the ball four times during Wednesday’s 112-85 win over the New York Knicks. We could see more of the same this Saturday.
NBA Pick: Paul George Over 3.5 Turnovers (+135) at the Best Sportsbooks
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at Wells Fargo Arena
76ers' De’Anthony Melton
- Over 2.5 3-Point Field Goals
Melton is one of the more interesting bench players out there. He’s a classic 3-and-D player, except Melton isn’t a wing – he’s a 6-foot-2 combo guard. Melton also isn’t doing all that well with the “3” part of his job description, hitting just 34.0% of his treys in his first year with the Sixers.
We’re still intrigued by Melton’s total of 2.5 made threes for Saturday’s matchup with the Hawks, especially with the payout in the +145 range. FantasyData project Melton to make 2.57 threes, even though he’s only managed 1.5 per game up to this point.
One of the keys to victory here is speed: Atlanta runs the sixth-fastest pace in the league at 104.4 possessions per game. This makes up in part for their improved perimeter defense now that Dejounte Murray is working the 2-spot.
Another key is the absence of James Harden (foot) for the Sixers. Melton has been in the starting lineup for each of the three games Harden has missed thus far, and both his minutes and his 3-point attempts have shot up as a result. Volume, volume, volume.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 08:30 PM EST at American Airlines Center
Mavericks' Luka Doncic
- Over 3.5 3-Point Field Goals
His name is Luka. And not only does he live on the second floor, Doncic also makes 2.5 threes per game. At a potential payout in the +135 neighborhood, if the NBA odds hold up, it should be worth hitting Over 3.5 for Saturday’s game against Portland.
The projections at FantasyData have Doncic at 3.21 made threes, so he’s in pretty good shape to make it four or more. The Snail Blazers (No. 28 in pace) won’t help us with their tempo, but they do rank No. 17 overall in made threes allowed – plus their backcourt is loaded with players listed as day-to-day with various ailments.
Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.