NBA Player Props Best Bets for November 26: All Luka Everything

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Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks passes over Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics during the third quarter at TD Garden. Winslow Townson/Getty Images/AFP

The NBA sure doesn’t mind messing with the Toronto Raptors. For whatever reason, the Raptors seem to get stuck playing games that start at the weirdest times – like last Saturday, when they visited the Atlanta Hawks for a 6 PM EST tip-off.

You might remember that matchup from our previous edition of NBA Player Props Best Bets. We were trying to scoop up some of that sweet, sweet betting value with the Over on Fred VanVleet (steals and rebounds) and O.G. Anunoby (assists). Sadly, VanVleet failed to reach his totals, but at least Anunoby got his dimes in.

So here we are again with the Raptors playing a 5 PM EST start against the Dallas Mavericks. Except half the team is either sick or injured, including VanVleet, who’s questionable with a non-COVID illness. In fact, the only player props on the NBA odds board at press all have Luka Doncic’s name on them.

If you’re a resident of the Lone Star State, don’t forget to check our guide on the best Texas betting sites.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors

Saturday, November 26, 2022 – 05:00 PM EST at Scotiabank Arena

Luka Doncic

  • Over/Under 3-Pointers Made
  • Over/Under Turnovers
  • To Record a Triple-Double

We’ve done this dance before. Our first Player Props article featured Doncic going Under 31.5 points when his Mavericks hosted Oklahoma City on October 29. They gave us a darned good scare by going to overtime, but Doncic finished with 31 points as the Thunder prevailed 117-111.

The Under still seems like the right NBA pick when dealing with Doncic, but when it comes to this Saturday’s matchup, we’re definitely taking the Over on 3-Pointers made. Doncic has a total of 2.5, with the Over priced around -105; FantasyData project Luka to sink 3.05 threes.

We’ll buy that for a dollar. The Raptors are an outstanding defensive team, but 3-pointers are their soft spot almost by design. And we know for certain they’ll be without the following players this Saturday:

  • PF Pascal Siakam (groin)
  • PF Precious Achiuwa (ankle)
  • PF Scottie Barnes (knee)
  • SF Otto Porter Jr (foot)

Assigning any of these guys positions is a fool’s errand; suffice to say they’re all long and rangy, and Doncic should have a much easier time shooting threes without them on the court, and even more so if VanVleet and SF Dalano Banton (ankle) join them on the sidelines.

NBA Pick: Luka Doncic Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-102) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Luka Doncic Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-102)
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How Many Turnovers?

For our second NBA player prop, we’re going to stick with the theme of exploiting Toronto’s undermanned defense – this time with Doncic going Under 3.5 turnovers. He’s projected to cough up the ball 3.38 times at FantasyData, and the Under is priced at around +135 on NBA lines at the best sportsbooks.

VanVleet’s absence would definitely help us out here – as would Banton’s. Looking at Toronto’s stats per 36 minutes (as provided by Basketball Reference), Banton is their top perimeter thief at 1.9 steals, followed by VanVleet at 1.8.

No doubt we’ll see a lot of Anunoby (2.4 steals) getting up in Luka’s grill this Saturday. And the Raptors still have enough depth to put quality defenders like Thaddeus Young (2.5) and Juancho Hernangomez (2.0) on the floor. Still, there are only so many Raps to go around now that at least four rotation players will be on the shelf.

NBA Pick: Luka Doncic Under 3.5 Turnovers (+135) at the Best Sportsbooks

WIll Doncic Record a Triple-Double?

Now here’s an interesting NBA prop: Will Doncic record a triple-double? His projections say no, but they’re pretty close:

  • Points: 30.17
  • Rebounds: 9.17
  • Assists: 7.78

If those numbers are reasonable, then “Yes” seems like a no-brainer at around +400. And depending on the rules at your chosen online sportsbook, steals (1.37) and blocks (0.6) would presumably count towards a triple-double. It could happen.

We’re pretty sure Doncic will reach double-digits in scoring. He dropped 35 points on Toronto back on November 4 when the Mavericks edged the Raps 101-100 in Big D – and that was with Siakam and Barnes in the starting lineup, and Achiuwa and Porter and Banton coming off the bench.

Rebounds (8 vs. TOR) and assists (6) will obviously be more difficult. But even there, we might get some additional help from the injury wire: Mavs PF Maxi Kleber (lower back contusion) is expected to play Saturday, his first action since November 15.

Kleber logged 16:49 in that previous game against Toronto with a couple of rebounds and a couple of assists off the bench. Maybe Kleber won’t be tasked with the same workload in his first game back, or maybe he will, but every additional minute Doncic plays instead will help our cause. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

NBA Pick: Doncic to Record Triple-Double (+390) at the Best Sportsbooks

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.