We’re not even two weeks into the 2022-23 regular season, and the NBA odds are already getting tighter than Dean Martin taping a Christmas special.
As we go to press, underdogs are virtually break-even at 40-39-1 ATS and the Over is 42-38; not much to work with trend-wise, although the Over has technically been profitable thus far at 52.5%. That’s why we try to find the best betting values on the board rather than bet every game blindly.
Here, in our finely honed judgment, are the best spread, moneyline and total bets for Sunday’s NBA matchups.
Orlando Magic vs. Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
Of the eight games on Sunday’s slate, there’s one straight bet we think is worth pounding for the standard single unit – everything else should be fun-size only. But this is a good dog. Yes, it is.
The Magic (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) never stop rebuilding, do they? And they haven’t done too well at the pay window. But these puppies still get 14/10 for this particular matchup.
Orlando’s defense is not horrible at No. 19 overall according to efficiency (110.5 points allowed per 100 possessions), and they also run a pretty slow offense (93.0 possessions per game, No. 20), so that will help them cover this double-digit spread.
We’re hoping Dallas (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS at press time) will be a bit tired after losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder in overtime, especially taking into account that it was a 09:00 PM EDT start. And while the Mavs are first overall in offense (119.4 points/100), they’re only No. 17 on defense (109.6) at this early point in the season.
The ATS Pick
Teams aren’t supposed to rest their star players this early in the season, but there’s a non-zero chance the Mavs will give Luka Doncic the night off here – just say he’s got a tight back or a sore hamstring or something. Happens all the time.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 06:00 PM EDT at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
There isn’t much profit margin with Sunday’s NBA picks against the moneyline, but there is something exciting happening with the Knicks – they’re winning.
New York Knicks
It looks like PG Jalen Brunson is exactly what the doctor ordered for New York (3-2 SU and ATS). Brunson has rescued their starting rotation, which is still not doing great thanks to RJ Barrett (minus-7.1 BPM at Basketball Reference) messing things up.
The Knicks bench is the real MVP here, with guard Derrick Rose and PF Obi Toppin deserving extra credit for their yeoman service.
Okay, maybe the Knicks would have preferred to land Donovan Mitchell, who has been even more important to the Cavaliers (4-1 SU and ATS) and their resurgence.
But Cleveland are still without fellow guard Darius Garland this Sunday, as he continues to recover from the cut left eye he suffered in their season-opening loss to the Toronto Raptors.
The Moneyline Pick
FiveThirtyEight project Cleveland to win this game 58% of the time, which works out to -138 when you run it through the ballin’ BMR Odds Converter. Other projections aren’t quite as pessimistic, so let’s keep that bet size small to protect ourselves.
Houston Rockets vs. Phoenix Suns
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
Since the Over seems to be doing okay, let’s give it a shot for this contest featuring an elite offense going up against a paper-thin defense.
The paper in this case is being provided by the Rockets (3-3 Totals). They are very young indeed, and they’re No. 21 in defensive efficiency at 112.3 points allowed per 100 possessions. Those young legs are quick, however, at 96.5 possessions per game (No. 12).
Chris Paul and the Suns (89.9 pace, No. 25) aren’t going to be running up and down the floor much, and they have the Under at 3-2 thus far, but Phoenix does have the NBA’s fourth-ranked offense at 114.4 points/100.
They also won’t have center Deandre Ayton (minus-2.3 OBPM, plus-0.8 DBPM) until November 5 because of a sprained left ankle.
The Over/Under Pick
We did say this should be a fun-size bet. But the fine folks at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) are helping us out here; other online sportsbooks have the total at 229. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Over 228 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.