NBA Picks for November 11: Best Bets Today

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Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

The Miami Heat will face the Los Angeles Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back. This will be a tough game for the Heat after losing Jimmy Butler last night against the Lakers.

With that news, Miami comes into this game as road underdogs but there could be some value in this number. Let’s see the NBA odds.

Miami Heat vs. L.A. Clippers

Thursday, November 11, 2021 – 10:30 PM EST at Staples Center

Heat Will Be Without Butler

Jimmy Butler only lasted twelve minutes yesterday before going down with an ankle injury. The line for this game is Clippers -4 and I think that might be a slight overreaction. The truth is, Butler’s absence will be a loss but the Heat are a good team even without him. Take last night’s game versus the Los Angeles Lakers. It’s rare that the Heat will put up 117 points and not come away with a win.

It also shows you that their offense is more than capable of holding its own, even without Butler. That isn’t surprising considering Butler doesn’t even lead the team in shots per game. Ever since coming to Miami, he’s always been the team’s best offensive player. The thing is he’s not a shoot-first player, he’s more of a finisher. There’s no doubt that the Heat will miss Butler in crunch time but I do believe they can stay within one possession of the Clippers.

Under Has Some Value Here

There are several reasons why the under has value in this game. Butler’s absence would be a major factor of course but there’s also the pace. The Heat play at the fourth slowest pace in the NBA and I don’t see how losing Butler will make them play faster.

Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

On top of that, they just played last night so the likelihood of them playing faster than normal is very low. Of course with the Clippers being the home team, they may very well look to push the pace. That said, I think the way these teams match up, it’s more likely to be a half-court game than a track meet.

Clippers Winning Streak Will Be Tested

After starting the season 1-4, the Clippers have won five straight games. They’ve been able to get it done on both ends which is an encouraging sign for head coach Ty Lue. The problem I have with their winning streak is the level of competition. They beat four teams (Minnesota twice) with a combined 18-27 record. That is one of the main reasons I am taking the points with the Heat in this spot.

Miami plays enough defense to be able to withstand the Clippers’ attack. Obviously, Butler’s absence does hurt their ability to defend the wing but this is far from a one-man team. This will be game three of a six-game homestand for the Clippers. The Heat will be playing their third game of a five-game road trip that doesn’t get any easier after tonight. Their next game is Utah against a Jazz team that is playing very good basketball at the moment.

I think the Heat will look to tonight as a great bounce-back spot. Even though it’s back-to-back road games, there’s no travel involved and I think that Miami will be fine tonight. The Heat’s rebounding advantage will play a key factor. They’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league which means extra possessions. On top of that, they’re one of the best at getting to the free-throw line. Take this consideration next time you look into your NBA picks.

NBA Pick: Miami +4 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.