NBA Daily Picks March 10: Take the Under in the Hawks Game

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Jalen Johnson #1 of the Atlanta Hawks shoots against Evan Mobley #4 of the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half at State Farm Arena on February 24, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. Alex Slitz/Getty Images/AFP

NBA Pick: Hawks vs. Wizards Under 238 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Hawks vs. Wizards Under 238 (-108)
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With a total this big, the under is still the right NBA pick Friday night when the Atlanta Hawks visit the Washington Wizards. 

That was more like it. The Atlanta Hawks hosted the Portland Trail Blazers last Friday, with new head coach Quin Snyder at the controls, and they finally cashed in the under for us when they beat Portland 129-111 (under 242).

What’s that? The total was 240 points when we made our NBA picks? Whatevs. Pretty much anytime you’re betting the under, you should wait until closer to tip-off before placing your bets – and it just so happens we’re going to the well again for this Friday’s Hotlanta action. Gird thy loins. 

Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards

Friday, March 10, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Capital One Arena

There’s already a chunky 238-point total on the NBA odds board at Heritage Sports as we go to press, which is plenty enough for a two-unit bet according to the projections, but again, there’s no rush.

Has Quin Snyder Changed Anything?

He’s definitely playing “the youths” more often than his predecessor. Nate McMillan didn’t have a lot of room in his rotations for developing the likes of forward Jalen Johnson, who’s exactly the kind of guy we want to see play this Friday (Expected Plus Minus stats by Dunks and Threes): 

  • Jalen Johnson OFF: minus-1.9 EPM 
  • Jalen Johnson DEF: plus-1.1 EPM 

Atlanta’s first-round pick (No. 20 overall) in the 2021 NBA Draft, Johnson was in and out of McMillan’s rotation this year; his playing time has picked up under Snyder, and the Hawks (over 38-28) have split the totals in Johnson’s four games since Snyder’s hire on February 26 – that Portland game being the first.

This figures to be a lovely “buy low” spot for the under, but the Wizards (over 32-31-3) could certainly spoil things for us. They lost 122-120 (over 237) to Atlanta this past Wednesday in the first of this two-game series at The Vault, with Kristaps Porzingis scoring 43 points on 17-for-22 shooting, including 7-for-10 from downtown.

That’s a pretty high bar for Porzingis (plus-4.9 EPM) to clear again. He definitely got screwed over in the All-Star process, but if Porzingis has another shooting night like that against the Hawks, I will… let’s see, what will I do… I’ll eat a Big Mac for the first time in 15 years. Please don’t let this happen, Atlanta. 

NBA Pick: Under 238 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Friday, March 10, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Wells Fargo Center

The under isn’t quite as juicy for our second basketball pick, but the fine folks at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) have already boosted their total from 229 to 229.5, so that’s enough for a single unit when the Trail Blazers (under 35-30-1) visit the Sixers (over 35-29-1). 

Will Anfernee Simons Play Friday?

It’s not looking good for Simons. He hasn’t played since aggravating his sprained right ankle on March 1 versus the New Orleans Pelicans; including that game, the under is on a 4-1 roll for Portland since Simons got hurt. He remains out indefinitely as we go to press. 

Aside from the Damian Lillard hype, there are two notable reasons for this under streak: Simons, and his replacement, Cam Reddish: 

  • Anfernee Simons OFF: plus-1.7 EPM 
  • Anfernee Simons DEF: minus-1.1 EPM 
  • Cam Reddish OFF: minus-1.6 EPM 
  • Cam Reddish DEF: plus-0.9 EPM 

Reddish came over to Portland at the trade deadline in that complicated four-team trade that saw Josh Hart shipped to the New York Knicks. Losing Hart takes some defensive starch out of their lineup, but they also acquired Matisse Thybulle from Philly in that deal, so it’s all good.

Of course, that means Thybulle isn’t playing for the Sixers, but they got Jalen McDaniels from the Charlotte Hornets in this trade, so again, it’s all good.

Hey, PA bettors! Make sure to use one of the top-rated Pennsylvania betting sites to wager today. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you. 

NBA Pick: Under 229.5 (-110) at BetOnline 

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Under 229.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.