Although there are 7 games on the NBA slate, we’ve bet on the 3 games where we see the most value. Which bet(s) will you tail at the best sportsbooks?
The NBA season has been exciting to begin the year. It’s also been profitable.
Let’s try and start off this new week with some winners and profit for our NBA picks.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Orlando Magic
Monday, November 14, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Amway Center
The Charlotte Hornets are just 2-6 on the road this season. They’ll take on an Orlando Magic team that only has wins at home this year. That should make things interesting.
The Hornets are scoring just 106.1 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 50.3%.
Charlotte’s been without Gordon Hayward, Dennis Smith Jr., Cody Martin, and LaMelo Ball for most of the season. Ball is back and Smith could end up playing, but overall, the Hornets just aren’t healthy.
They’ve rarely seen the foul line and are turning the ball over 14.6% of the time. It’s also unlikely that the Hornets dominate the offensive glass, with Orlando allowing under 25% offensive rebounds this season.
On the other hand, the Magic are scoring 111.1 points per 100 possessions and have shot an effective field goal percentage of 54.3%.
The Magic should see the foul line often in this game. They’ve earned a free throw rate of 24.1 while the Hornets have allowed a free throw rate of 22.4.
The Moneyline Pick
Orlando will need to minimize turnovers and probably will against a Hornets team that has only forced 14.6% of turnovers. As we approach this game, Paolo Banchero is questionable but practiced and should be able to play.
If he’s good to go, I like the Magic to earn a home win over the Hornets.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets
Monday, November 14, 2022 - 08:00 PM EST at Toyota Center
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are scoring just 104.9 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s the worst rate in the NBA.
They’ll be without John Wall and Kawhi Leonard in this game, which also won’t help their case offensively. Los Angeles has relied heavily on Paul George, but there’s no other consistent threat offensively.
The Clippers have turned the ball over 16.2% of the time. They’ve also earned just 21% of offensive rebounds and have a low free-throw rate of 18.3%. They’ve been terrible offensively this year.
The Rockets haven’t performed defensively, but they’ll at least hold the Clippers from getting to the line and force some turnovers while keeping second-chance points off the board.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are currently one of the best defenses in the NBA, holding teams to 108.6 points per 100 possessions with a 52.4% effective field goal percentage. The Rockets have struggled offensively and won’t have it easy against the Clippers, scoring 108.5 points per 100 possessions.
The Rockets are great on the offensive glass, but the Clippers have only allowed 25.3% offensive rebounds.
Houston has also got to the foul line at a high rate, but the Clippers have allowed teams a free throw rate of just 15.6, which is the best in the NBA.
The Over/Under Pick
This is going to be a defensive battle.
Take the Under at the NBA odds.
NBA Pick: Over 219.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Monday, November 14, 2022 - 08:00 PM EST at Fiserv Forum
The Milwaukee Bucks are currently the best defense in the NBA. They’ve held teams to 105 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also allowed a 50.1% effective field goal percentage.
The Bucks don’t force a high rate of turnovers, but they’ve dominated the defensive glass and continue to keep teams off the foul line. The Hawks aren’t getting to the foul line at a high rate.
And while Atlanta is solid at earning offensive rebounds, those numbers are going to decrease against the Bucks, who have allowed 24.3% of offensive rebounds this season.
On the other hand, the Hawks have also allowed just 111.1 points per 100 possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 51.6%.
Atlanta’s defense isn’t as good due to a high amount of fouls, but they’ll defend at a high rate against Milwaukee in this game.
It’ll come down to second chances, turnovers, and free throws. The Bucks will be more aggressive to get to the foul line and will also have more success on the offensive glass.
The Hawks also have earned just 14.2% of turnovers this season.
The Spread Pick
I’ll take the Bucks at home at -4.
NBA Pick: Bucks -4 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.