The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat belong in Wednesday’s NBA picks, but there’s an Under on the board with even more betting value.
Wednesday might be our new favorite day here at the home office. It’s always easier making NBA picks when you have several games to choose from and Wednesday is one of the busiest days on the calendar, with the ESPN double-header at the forefront.
Picks are also easier when casual fans are throwing their money around. And go figure, the first Wednesday game on the Worldwide Leader is also the one we think has the most potential profit attached. God bless Hump Day.
Here, in our esteemed judgment, are the best spread, moneyline, and total bets for Wednesday’s NBA slate.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons
Wednesday, October 26, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Little Caesars Arena
We start in Motown with two Eastern Conference teams on the rise, or at least they’re supposed to be (one of them is still stuck in the hangar).
Pairing Dejounte Murray with Trae Young in the backcourt appears to have solved some of Atlanta’s defensive issues. The Hawks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS at press time) are now projected to win 50 games at FiveThirtyEight, about 5 wins more than their range of totals on the NBA odds board.
It’s early, but the Pistons (1-2 SU and ATS) check in at minus-17.55 on the Simple Rating System at Basketball Reference, putting them dead last in the NBA. Detroit’s 23-win projection is around 6-7 games below their posted totals.
The Spread Pick
With Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Saddiq Bey at the 1-2-3 spots, Detroit will be good someday. We’re hoping that day won’t be Wednesday. Atlanta’s superior frontcourt will have an even bigger advantage with Pistons PF Marvin Bagley III (knee) out until November at the earliest.
Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Wednesday, October 26, 2022 - 10:00 PM EDT at Moda Center
This would be a crazy NBA Finals matchup. It could happen, but again, one of these teams really needs to get it in gear.
That team would be the Heat (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS). SG Tyler Herro and SF Jimmy Butler have played well, but the rest of their regular rotation is a mess and it isn’t just PG Kyle Lowry. Bam Adebayo has had his issues at the center and there’s not much left on the bench with SG Victor Oladipo (knee) confined to the sick bay.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers (4-0 SU and ATS) are the last undefeated team in the league. But they’re not the best, at least not according to their plus-13.68 SRS, which ranks 4th in the Western Conference and 5th overall. SG Anfernee Simons (minus-3.2 Box Plus/Minus) might be the most overrated player in the NBA.
The Moneyline Pick
We’re happy to kick the Pistons while they’re still down, but bigger things are expected from Miami this year. We’ll “buy low” on the Heat and “sell high” on Portland. By the way, Miami was short-handed for Monday’s 98-90 loss to the Toronto Raptors (+3.5 away), with PF Caleb Martin and PF Nikola Jović serving one-game suspensions. They’ll be back for Hump Day.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, October 26, 2022 - 07:30 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
This is the main event of the evening. Millions of people will be watching this game, and many of them will bet the Over, hoping to see their favorite superstars light it up. They may be disappointed.
Early returns on the Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving-Ben Simmons triumvirate are... not good. Durant (plus-4.7 BPM) is doing fine, but Irving (minus-0.3 BPM) still doesn’t play defense, and Simmons (minus-7.4 BPM) has turned into a black hole on offense. They need SG Seth Curry (ankle) to hurry up and make his season debut, which could happen any day now.
Speaking of injuries, it’s bad enough that forward Khris Middleton (wrist) won’t suit up for a while yet, but Milwaukee’s offense has been further compromised by the loss of SG Pat Connaughton to a strained right calf. The Bucks rank No. 18 overall in offensive efficiency at 107.8 points per 100 possessions and first on defense at 99.3 points allowed.
The Total Pick
Okay, the Nets (115.2 points allowed, No. 27) don’t play defense, and they’ve got the Over at 2-1, but the Bucks (1-1 on totals) more than makeup for it. Size your bets accordingly at the best sportsbooks once you learn more about Curry’s status and may the sphere be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.