NBA Daily Picks: Best Spread, Moneyline and Total for November 4

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LeBron James #6 of the Los Angeles Lakers runs a pick and roll with Anthony Davis #3 past Trey Murphy III #25 of the New Orleans Pelicans. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP.

With a loaded slate in the NBA, here are three best bets to consider for Friday’s NBA action.

We’ve got so many exciting matchups in the NBA tonight! Find out where I see value below with my three favorite bets for the night at the best sportsbooks!

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Friday, November 4, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Target Center

Teams Analysis

The Milwaukee Bucks are currently 7-0 to begin the season. They’ve only scored 113 points per 100 possessions but have been able to dominate the offensive glass to earn second chances. The Bucks have shot a 52% effective field goal percentage, which isn’t great, but have limited turnovers to just 14.2%.

There’s a chance that Milwaukee doesn’t get to the foul line all that much in tonight’s game. The Timberwolves have been very good defensively, holding teams to a free-throw rate of 17.4.

Minnesota has also held teams to 108.6 points per 100 possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 50.9%. They’ve been very good defensively. Although, they’ll have a challenge against Milwaukee, especially on the defensive glass.

On the other hand, the Timberwolves haven’t figured out their offense this season. They’re scoring 110.8 points per 100 possessions, which is 23rd in the NBA. They’re facing the best defense in the NBA in the Bucks, who have allowed just 101.3 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks aren’t winning with a really good offense, they’re winning with an average offense and terrific defense.

Minnesota’s below average in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and free throw percentage defensively. They’ve only been effective on the offensive glass. However, the Bucks have allowed just 23.4% of offensive rebounds this season. Back the Bucks to cover the -3.5 on the road.

The Spread Pick

Minnesota’s lost their last 2 games and the starting lineup is underperforming with Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Edwards playing together.

NBA Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Bucks -3.5 (-110)
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Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics

Friday, November 4, 2022 - 07:30 PM EDT at TD Garden

Teams Analysis

The Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls are both above .500 by one single game. A loss for either one of these teams would bring them back down to .500. I don’t have an opinion on the winner, but I have a thought about the total.

The Chicago Bulls are only shooting a 51.6% effective field goal percentage. That’s 26th in the league. It sounds really bad, especially knowing that Boston has allowed a 52.1% effective field goal percentage defensively.

But the Celtics are the worst team in the NBA at earning turnovers. They’ve only forced 12.1% of turnovers and Chicago has been very good at holding onto the ball. The Bulls have also been getting to the foul line at a high rate of 26.5, which is second-best in the NBA. If the Bulls are able to limit turnovers and score plenty of points at the foul line, the offense will be there for Chicago.

On the other hand, Boston is scoring 115.5 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also shot an effective field goal percentage of 55.8%, which is 6th best in the NBA. The Bulls have allowed a 55.6% effective field goal percentage, which is one of the worst rates in the NBA.

The Total Pick

Boston likely won’t earn a high rate of 2nd chances against the Bulls, but as long as they get quality looks and continue to get to the foul line while keeping turnovers down, the Celtics will be fine offensively.

Following the NBA odds, give me the Over.

NBA Pick: Over 223 (-110) at BetOnline

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Over 223 (-110)
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Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Friday, November 4, 2022 -10:30 PM EDT at Arena

The Lakers lost their first 5 games, but have won 2 straight since. Sure, they’ve needed miracles, but they really can’t afford a loss to the Utah Jazz in tonight’s contests.

The Lakers are the second-best defense in the NBA, holding teams to 105.6 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also held teams to a 50.8% effective field goal percentage. The Jazz should struggle in those two areas while turning the ball over at a high rate. Utah also rarely gets to the foul line.

Meanwhile, the Lakers have been the worst offense in the NBA, scoring just 101.2 points per 100 possessions, but it truly can’t get any worse. The Jazz has struggled on the defensive glass. That should open up some second-chance opportunities for the Lakers in this game if they game plan right.

The Moneyline Pick

The Jazz has been an above-average defense this season. But I keep waiting for teams like the Jazz to finally come back down to Earth and teams like the Lakers to finally break out.

This game should be that. Give me the Lakers on the moneyline for my NBA picks.

NBA Pick: Lakers (-140) at BetOnline

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Lakers (-140)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.