It’s always great to start a new NBA betting season on a profitable note. We have the Chicago Bulls to thank for that, as they upset the Miami Heat 116-108 this past Wednesday, cashing in at (+215) for our NBA picks and a healthy (+255) on the closing line.
We didn’t have quite as much success with our spread and total picks, but we came out ahead nonetheless. Maybe we can do better Saturday now that we’re getting our basketball legs back.
Keep in mind, we’re jumping on the early NBA odds here at the ranch, so there’s a non-zero chance things will have changed by the time you read this re: injured and inactive players and such. Adjust accordingly.
Here, in our estimation, are the best spread, moneyline and total bets for Saturday’s NBA games in terms of potential profit margin.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 06:00 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Center
If you’re new to betting on the NBA, you might think it’s crazy to bet on a team as bad as the Spurs, especially against a team as good as the Sixers.
Good thing there are plenty of new NBA bettors this year – although not as many as in the NFL market, judging by the edges we’re seeing thus far.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are supposed to be tanking this year, having traded Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks.
They’re looking at a 22.5-win total at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), but FiveThirtyEight like San Antonio to win 29 games this year.
Head coach Gregg Popovich has a lot of young talent to work with, including PF Keldon Johnson and SG Devin Vassell, plus a seasoned center in Jakob Poeltl.
Already down 0-2 (1-1 ATS) in the Eastern Conference, the Sixers have championship expectations this year, but Joel Embiid doesn’t look like an MVP candidate just yet.
There always seems to be something holding him back from complete world domination – maybe it’s that thumb surgery he had during the offseason.
The Spread Pick
The Spurs opened as 14-point road dogs. That’s a lot of points.
They’ve just moved down to +13.5 as I write this, but 14 isn’t a magic number like it is in NFL betting, so we’re still good for a one-unit bet here.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Sacramento Kings
Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Golden 1 Center
If you see where the betting value is with our spread pick, you’ll immediately understand the logic behind our moneyline pick.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are +550 title favorites at Bovada.
They’re a damn fine team, but Kawhi Leonard started the season by coming off the bench and playing just 21 minutes in Thursday’s 103-97 win over the Los Angeles Lakers (+165 at home).
With the Seattle Mariners making the MLB postseason, the Kings are now the proud owners of the longest playoff drought in the four major North American sports leagues at 16 years and counting.
The projections don’t look too good for Sacto this year, but as far as Saturday is concerned, we’re hoping the arrival of head coach Mike Brown will allow PG De’Aaron Fox to unlock his considerable potential.
The Moneyline Pick
Moneylines usually take longer to hit the NBA odds board than spreads.
We think Sacramento are worth a smallish bet at this opening price, but you’ll probably find something better once you read this – and maybe better still closer to tip-off.
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at FTX Arena
The Heat did us a solid Wednesday in their loss to Chicago. We’re counting on more of the same to help us with Saturday’s total pick.
They switch ‘em here. They switch ‘em there. Those Raptors switch ‘em everywhere.
Toronto’s defense is on point to start the 2022-23 season, but they still don’t shoot very well – and they’re still without the free-agent signing who was supposed to help them correct that, Otto Porter Jr (hamstring).
I didn’t hear a lot of kvetching about Kyle Lowry until this summer, but Miami fans seem to be more than willing now to throw him under the bus.
Lowry’s 1-for-7 shooting performance against the Bulls didn’t do much to win back their hearts and minds.
The Over/Under Pick
Both teams will be playing on zero days of rest, so even though it’s early in the season, those tired legs –especially with the veteran Heat– should have a little less spring in them.
Make it a fun-size bet, though, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Under 215.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.