The first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs was absolutely bonkers. The No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks? Gone, eliminated by the No. 8 Miami Heat. Also out of the running: the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies and No. 3 Sacramento Kings. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Removing these quality teams from the equation has left the race for the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy wide open – at least in the Western Conference. The NBA odds in the East aren’t nearly as close, with Milwaukee out of the mix.
Eastern Values
As we go to press, the No. 2 Boston Celtics are runaway -225 favorites at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) to win the East, well ahead of the No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers at +500. Those same two teams are about to meet in the Conference Semifinals; Joel Embiid was considered doubtful for Monday’s opener with a sprained knee.
It’s amazing these are the leading contenders in the East when you consider the Heat (Bovada’s third favorites at +550) are already up 1-0 in their series with the No. 5 New York Knicks (+950). However, Miami has injury problems of their own after Jimmy Butler rolled his ankle late in Sunday’s 108-101 win over New York as 4-point road dogs.
Despite that head start, FiveThirtyEight only projects Miami’s chances of winning the East at 17%, compared to 49% for Boston. The Sixers are the value pick from the remaining four teams; their 28% projection translates to +257 when you run it through the unflappable BMR Odds Converter.
That value exists in part because of Embiid’s injury. Heading into the series, it was believed Embiid could miss the first two games in Boston, and as we mentioned in last week’s award-disfiguring article on NBA betting trends, the Sixers are 12-5 SU and ATS this year with Embiid on the shelf.
How the West Has Won
While the concentration of talent in the Eastern Conference was mostly with the top seeds, the West was considered anyone’s to win – and still is, with the No. 1 Denver Nuggets (+200) holding a slight lead over the remaining contenders.
Why just the slight lead? Once again, the Nuggets were able to get the jump on the West, taking the first game of their second-round series with the No. 4 Phoenix Suns 125-107 as 4.5-point home faves. But the Suns are still right there at +270 to win the conference and reach the NBA Finals, according to the top US sportsbooks.
Blame it on Kevin Durant. Everyone went crazy betting on Phoenix after they acquired Durant ahead of the trade deadline, but it’s the Nuggets who have the best player in this series – and the entire league – in reigning and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
Bet on Denver Over Warriors and Lakers
Meanwhile, the playoff spotlight has been stolen by the No. 6 Golden State Warriors (+240) and the No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (+360), who will meet in the other Western semi. The Warriors are the defending champions; the Lakers won the title in 2020. Who will prevail?
Probably the champs. FiveThirtyEight projects them to win this series 60% of the time, and 32% for the entire conference, while Los Angeles is stuck at 40% and 18% respectively. Mind you, those projections might not fully take into account the vast improvements the Lakers made at the trade deadline.
You still wouldn’t want to bet on either team at these odds. The clear choice has to be Denver, whose 41% projected chance of winning the West translates to +144 in American odds. The Nuggets have all the betting value in the West, playing against a Phoenix team that is loaded with big-name but aging talent, so make your betting picks accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
*The line and/or odds in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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