Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Playoffs Game 1 Predictions and Top Play

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The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals this Wednesday evening on TNT.

The Mavericks are coming off their stunning Game 7 victory in Phoenix, a series they won after outscoring the top seed by 60 points in the final two games.

The Warriors went on a classic Golden State run to put away the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 6 last Friday night.

Now the Warriors seek their sixth NBA Finals appearance in their last six trips to the postseason.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors

Wednesday, May 18, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Chase Center

The Warriors (46-43-4 ATS) are a 5-point favorite over the Mavericks (56-37-2 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.

Golden State was 1-3 against Dallas in the regular season, but the Warriors were also 1-3 against both the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies before beating them in the playoffs.

Can this revenge tour continue into the Finals?

Season Series Recap: Mavericks Lead 3-1

Dallas can boast some legitimate success against the Warriors this season.

  • In the first meeting in Dallas in early January, the Mavericks held Golden State to a season-low 82 points in a 99-82 win.
  • Steph Curry shot 5-of-24 from the field in one of his worst shooting games this season.

While Curry played in all four games against the Mavericks, the playoffs will be the first time Dallas has faced the trio of Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green in 2022.

In case you haven’t noticed, this is the trio, along with head coach Steve Kerr, that has been around for the whole run of success in Golden State.

Keeping this trio (when healthy) out of the Finals is something no one in the Western Conference has done since 2014.

But the Mavericks do have a superstar in Luka Doncic.

  • He scored at least 25 points in all four meetings with the Warriors, and he had a 41-point game in the most recent matchup, a 122-113 win in early March.
  • In the two home games in Dallas, Doncic averaged 2.5 assists. In the two road games in Golden State, Doncic averaged 8.5 assists.

But Doncic cannot do it alone, and he is actually a minus-14 over the four games with the Warriors.

His teammates are going to have to show up on the road as they did in the late February meeting in Golden State, a 107-101 win.

Dallas trailed 88-74 going into the fourth quarter before outscoring the Warriors 33-13 in the fourth.

Spencer Dinwiddie, a Game 7 hero in Phoenix, came off the bench in that game to score 24 points.

But that was also a game where the Warriors were playing without Thompson and Green.

Their presence makes things much easier for Curry, and the trio has enjoyed the blossoming of guard Jordan Poole this season.

In fact, Poole’s late-season surge seemed to begin with the 23-point game he had against Dallas in March.

He averaged 25.4 points per game in the final 20 games of the regular season after averaging 16.0 points per game in his first 56 games of the season.

Can Dallas Pull This Off?

Many sportsbooks have the Warriors as the NBA odds-on favorites to win the championship this season.

Dallas has the lowest betting odds of the four remaining teams, but Doncic is a special player who should be able to push this series to six or seven games.

He’ll just need his teammates to make shots as the Mavericks are relying more on threes than any team this postseason.

Just under 50% of their shot attempts are from three, compared to 43.9% in the regular season, which ranked fifth.

Dallas has been a better shooting team this postseason than the Nuggets and Grizzlies, Golden State’s first two opponents.

The Mavericks are making 41.9% of their wide-open threes this postseason compared to 34.7% for the Grizzlies and 36.1% for the Nuggets according to NBA.com.

The Mavericks are also one of the best teams at keeping turnovers low, which has been a problem for the Warriors, ranked 29th in turnover rate, this season.

However, the Warriors did win the turnover battle in three of the four games with Dallas.

If the Mavericks want to get into a three-point shooting contest with the Warriors, the odds should still favor the Warriors with Curry, Thompson, and Poole.

Thompson struggled a lot in the Memphis series, but he found his usual touch in Game 6.

Another big advantage for the Warriors is the return of head coach Steve Kerr, who missed the last three games with COVID.

The offense was sloppy in his absence against Memphis. He is cleared for his return to try to lead this team to a sixth Finals appearance.

Predictions

The Warriors are 27-18-2 ATS at home this season, the third-best record in the league.

As we saw at the end of Game 6 against Memphis, the Warriors can still go on a soul-crushing run.

Even after playing them tight for three-and-a-half quarters, the Grizzlies lost by 14 points thanks to a 23-7 run by the Warriors in a matter of minutes.

That type of magic is always a possibility in this building, and for Game 1, look for the Warriors to impress again and get this cover.

But this series should provide plenty of drama as long as Doncic is healthy.

Score Prediction: Warriors 114, Mavericks 108

NBA Pick: Warriors -5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Warriors -5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.