The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks have been trading blows at home throughout the entire Western Conference Semifinals. Tonight’s Game 7 will be played in Phoenix but does that truly give an edge to the Suns tonight?
Let’s see what the NBA odds tell us!
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Sunday, May 15, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns will play one final game in the Western Conference Semifinals. Tonight, it’s Game 7. The Suns have won every game at home this series while the Mavericks have won every game on their home floor in this series.
With the Suns getting the home game, Phoenix is in a better position to move on. The winner of this game will have to duel it out against the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.
In most of this series, the home team dominated the road team with close to double-digit margins in every game. Can Dallas stick around, on the road, in a must-win game?
Here are our NBA picks and predictions for the Western Conference Semifinals matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns.
Game 6 Recap
Did the Phoenix Suns care about Game 6? The Suns ended up losing Game 6, on the road, 113-86.
- Luka Doncic added 33 points.
- Reggie Bullock and Jalen Brunson chipped in with just under 20 points each.
- When Doncic scores 30 points or more, the Mavericks are 3-0 in the series. When he doesn’t, they’re 0-3.
It shows you just how valuable Doncic is to the Mavericks.
The Mavericks also held the Suns to just 39.7% from the field in a game where the Suns’ depth just didn’t show up. Chris Paul only had four assists in 36 minutes and Devin booker missed 11 shots on 17 attempts.
The Suns still ended up winning the glass, despite losing by a hefty margin but the turnovers were the main difference. The Suns turned the ball over 22 times while the Mavericks only turned the ball over seven times.
Phoenix, at home, will need to do a better job of keeping the turnovers down. Once the Suns do that, things will start to come together for the Suns.
The Expectation for Game 7
After all, Phoenix has been a terrific defense all year. There’s a reason why the Suns won 64 games in the regular season, even while having to deal with injuries with their star players.
The Suns held teams to 107.6 points per 100 possessions this season and limited teams to a 51.5% effective field goal percentage. Dallas, on the other hand, was scoring 114.1 points per 100 possessions with a 54.4% effective field goal percentage on the offensive end.
Dallas was also one of the better teams when it came to holding onto the basketball this season but the Suns were crafty in forcing turnovers. That’ll have to come into play today.
I keep talking about turnovers because it’s important to know that the Suns only turned the ball over 12.6% of the time this season. That was the third-best rate in the NBA this season. In Game 6, the Suns turned the ball over way too much but the expectation is that at home, the Suns will take care of the ball better.
Neither team is going to dominate the glass but overall, Phoenix does have the advantages on both sides of the ball analytically.
I’d expect that the Suns have a quality shooting game, limit Luka Doncic and force other players to make players, like Jalen Brunson or Spencer Dinwiddie. The Suns will also limit turnovers and win the rebounding battle. If Phoenix can do that, and the Suns shoot at a better percentage, the Suns will clinch the Western Conference Finals appearance.
I don’t think Dallas will be blown out. But I think the Suns eventually pull away, on their home floor. The Suns shot nearly 50% from the field in their last home game and held the Mavericks to 38% from the field in Game 5.
Dallas literally only hit 25% from downtown on 32 attempts and ended up losing the rebounding battle by 12.
In Game 5, the Suns only turned the ball over 12 times and forced 18 turnovers. That’s exactly what I’m expecting will happen in this game. The Suns added 16 more shot attempts on their home floor and earned 12 offensive rebounds in that game.
That’s the kind of Phoenix will be seeing tonight.
I’m taking the Suns -6.5 against the spread, at home.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.