The Dallas Mavericks ranked first in points per 100 possessions and effective field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Nets rank 29th defensively in those areas. Are the Mavericks a lock to earn a win tonight?
Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, October 27, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Barclays Center
The Brooklyn Nets will look to get back in the win column with a home game against the Dallas Mavericks. The Nets have been one of the worst defenses in the NBA, while the Mavericks have become one of the best offenses in the NBA.
You already know where I’m going with this, but here are our NBA picks and predictions for tonight’s game between the Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets.
When Mavericks Have the Ball
Luka Dončić is averaging nearly 35 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. Not only does he lead the Mavericks in points, but he’s also leading in rebounds and assists, with 9 rebounds per game and 7.7 assists per game.
The Mavericks are currently the best offense in the league. They’re scoring 121.2 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 58.7%. Both of those numbers ranked first in their categories.
The Mavericks have also limited turnovers to 13.5% and have earned 28.7% of offensive rebounds to begin the year. Dallas has also earned a free throw rate of 23.2, which is 6th best in the NBA.
What Can We Expect?
On the other hand, the Nets have allowed 120.2 points per 100 possessions with a 54% effective field goal percentage. Brooklyn has also struggled on the defensive glass, giving up 37.4% of offensive rebounds per game.
They’ve been average with turnovers, earning just 14.2% per game, and have a defensive free throw rate of 21.2, which is the 16th best.
Dallas should be able to dominate the offensive glass and get second chances. They’re taking some excellent shots, to begin with, and should be able to limit turnovers and get to the foul line at a high rate in this game against the Nets.
When Nets Have the Ball
The Nets are 1-3 on the season and have lacked offense. They’re scoring 111.7 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.7%.
The Nets have kept turnovers down to 13.8% but haven’t had many second chances, earning 24.3% of offensive rebounds to begin the year. Still, Brooklyn should find themselves at the line at a very high rate, averaging a 23.8 free throw rate to start the year.
Currently, Kevin Durant leads the team with 32.3 points per game. Nic Claxton has earned the most rebounds, with 9 per game. Finally, Ben Simmons leads the team with 7.5 assists.
They’re getting production from everyone in different areas, but it’s inconsistent.
Can We Trust Their Defense?
Meanwhile, the Mavericks have allowed 111.2 points per 100 possessions while giving up a 55.8% effective field goal. They’ve earned 15.1% turnovers and dominated on the defensive glass, giving up just 20.2% of offensive rebounds.
Still, the Mavericks have struggled to keep teams off the foul line, which has hurt them so far.
The Nets can score plenty of points with Durant and Irving on the roster. It hasn’t worked out yet, but if the Nets limit turnovers, earn a couple more offensive rebounds, take better shots, and stay aggressive to get to the line, the Nets will stick around against the Mavericks at home.
Prediction and Pick
The Mavericks are the best offense in the NBA. Yet, they’re 1-2 because of the defense. The Mavericks have allowed the 7th highest effective field goal percentage defensively and the 7th highest free throw rate in the NBA.
They’ve limited second chances and continue to earn a high rate of turnovers, but the Mavs need to limit good shots and free throw attempts.
On the other hand, the Nets have been one of the worst defenses in the NBA and will now take on a very efficient Dallas Mavericks team. The Mavericks are taking high-quality shots. They’re dominating the glass and getting to the foul line at a high rate while keeping turnovers down.
I like the Mavericks to win this game, but I also know what the Nets are capable of doing offensively. Therefore, I’m even more confident in the Over.
Score Prediction: Mavericks 120 - Nets 114
NBA Pick: Over 226 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.