Lakers vs. Kings Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick

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LeBron James #6 of the Los Angeles Lakers . Meg Oliphant/Getty Images/AFP

The Los Angeles Lakers (21-20) look to continue their playoff push against the Sacramento Kings (16-27) this Wednesday evening. The Lakers’ only losses in their last seven games were against the streaking Grizzlies. The Kings are on a five-game losing streak that started with a loss to the Lakers eight days ago.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings

Wednesday, January 12, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Golden 1 Center

The Lakers (17-24 ATS) are a 2.5-point favorite over the Kings (18-25 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. These teams have two of the six worst spread records in the NBA. However, the Lakers are 5-2 ATS over the last seven games and 2-1 ATS against the Kings this season.

Season Series

This is already the fourth matchup this season between these teams. The Kings were able to win a 141-137 triple-overtime game the day after Thanksgiving when the Lakers were still whole with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

It is the only overtime game this season the Lakers (5-1) lost. James was absent for the rematch four days later, but the Kings still lost 117-92. When these teams met eight days ago with LeBron back and Davis still out, the Lakers closed in the fourth quarter for a 122-114 win.

LeBron is on a tear right now with 30 points in 10 of his last 11 games. He has gone over 30 points in both games he played against the Kings this season. However, the Lakers are only 10-8 this season when James scores at least 30 points as getting enough help has been an issue with the Davis injury and team chemistry among the new pieces.

When these teams met last week, the Lakers were outshot in the game, 51.8% to 49.5%. The 51.8% was the highest the Kings have had in a loss this season. The Lakers are 1-11 when being outshot by more than 2.0 percentage points this year, but a key to this win was protecting the ball. Los Angeles had a season-low five turnovers while the Kings had 18 giveaways. The Lakers are 9-1 when they are at least plus-3 in turnover differential.

The Lakers are only No. 21 in Offensive Rating this season, but they have shot well against the Kings this season, hitting at least 49.5% of their shots in all three games. The Lakers are 17-4 this season when making at least 47.5% of their shots from the field. They have yet to score fewer than 117 points against the Kings.

Kings points guard De'Aaron Fox has had two of his seven 30-point games this season against the Lakers, including last week’s loss. One of his best games all season was the triple-overtime win over the Lakers when he scored 34 points and was a plus-15.

Fox needs more help from Tyrese Haliburton, who shot 3-of-10 last week against the Lakers and only scored seven points. Buddy Hield kept the Kings in the game with one of his best performances this season: 7-of-13 from three and 26 points.

Hield runs hot and cold, but the Kings are 9-4 when he scores at least 20 points this year.

Last Five Games

With LeBron’s hot streak, the Lakers are 4-1 over the last five games with the best Offensive Rating (122.7) during this stretch. But in Sunday’s 127-119 loss to the Grizzlies, James (35 points) was the only starter to score more than seven points for the Lakers.

Russell Westbrook has 15 points in the last two games combined as he shot only 23.1% from the field. He needs to break out of this shooting slump as he was a plus-29 in the two wins over the Kings this season.

The Lakers are 10-3 when Malik Monk scores at least 16 points this season. Since returning on Christmas, Monk was averaging 21.9 points per game, including 24 against the Kings last week, before he had a rough outing against the Grizzlies with seven points on 3-of-13 shooting.

In Sacramento’s five-game losing streak, the Kings are 22nd in Offensive Rating and 23rd in Defensive Rating. The Kings allow the most points in the paint per game, the second-most points off turnovers, and the second-most second-chance points. The Kings are 2-22 when they score fewer than 110 points this season. Only the Rockets (one) have fewer wins in that split.

Both teams are subpar in turnover rate this season with the Lakers ranking 21st and the Kings being 16th. However, over the last five games, the Lakers have the lowest turnover rate (9.9%) in the league. But they also are next to last in rebound percentage (45.3%).

Prediction

Sacramento is 3-7 ATS with a rest disadvantage this year. The Lakers have been money as of late when not playing Memphis. Trust Westbrook and Monk to bounce back and give James enough help to cover the spread on the road for your NBA picks this Wednesday.

NBA Pick: Lakers -2.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Lakers -2.5 (-110)
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