Kings vs. Clippers Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick

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Paul George #13 of the LA Clippers. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP.

The Sacramento Kings (8-14) will meet the Los Angeles Clippers (11-10) this Wednesday evening on NBA TV. The Kings just lost 117-92 at home to the LeBron-less Lakers last night. The Clippers have lost their last two games by at least 15 points. But what about the NBA odds?

Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Wednesday, December 01, 2021 – 10:30 PM EST at Staples Center

The Clippers (9-12 ATS) are a 7.5-point favorite over Sacramento (9-13 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. The Clippers have not been able to string together any wins this season besides their seven-game winning streak to begin November. Can they rebound at home against a bad Sacramento team?

Clippers: 3-6 Since Win Streak Ended

Without the services of superstar Kawhi Leonard (ACL), the Clippers are essentially a two-man offensive team with Paul George and Reggie Jackson. Their efforts have been good enough to produce an 11-10 start as the team has to rely on defense (No. 3 in defensive rating) to carry most of their wins.

The Clippers are 1-6 when they allow 110 points this season and they already have seven games where they failed to score 100 points after having eight such games all last season.

The Clippers have fallen to No. 26 in offensive rating and No. 15 in eFG%. George’s 25.9 points per game would be the second-highest scoring average of his career, but his 3P% (33.2%) is the second lowest of his career. Similarly, Jackson is averaging the second-most points per game (17.6) in his career while shooting the second-worst FG% (40.2%) of his career.

These two are relied on heavily as no other Los Angeles player is averaging 10.0 points per game this season. The Clippers have a whopping six players who are averaging between 9.6 and 9.9 points per game. One of those players, starting forward Nicolas Batum, remains out as he is in the health and safety protocol.

But the Clippers have had the same four starters at the other positions for all 21 games this season. They are just badly missing the all-around excellent play of Leonard. Veteran point guard Eric Bledsoe is not aiding the team with much production as he too is shooting the second-worst FG% (41.6%) of his long career.

Still, it may not be accurate to say these Clippers go as George goes offensively this year. The Clippers are 5-7 when George scores more than 25 points and 6-3 when he is under 25 points. The Clippers are even 2-5 when George shoots at least 50% from the field.

Paul George #13 of the Los Angeles Clippers. Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images/AFP

Last season, Los Angeles was 26-4 when George made at least half his shots. Most of those games were with George being the Robin to Leonard’s Batman. Getting that second option going may be more important for the Clippers.

This season, the Clippers are 8-1 when Jackson scores at least 20 points and 1-7 when he scores below his average of 17.6 points. After a scoreless game against the Warriors, Jackson got going with 19 points in a loss to the Pelicans on Monday. Defense really failed the team in that 123-104 loss.

Kings: About Last Night

The Kings beat the Lakers with LeBron James in triple overtime on Friday, and Sacramento looked to catch a break yesterday with James entering the COVID protocol. But the Kings forgot to finish the second half of the game as the Lakers blew them out 67-33 in the second half on their way to a 117-92 win.

Sacramento shot 6-of-29 from three, setting their season-low for made threes and their second-lowest 3P% in a game this year. The Kings are now 1-11 when they shoot worse than 33.3% from three with the only win being that 141-137 triple-overtime one over the Lakers last week.

The Kings is 28th in 3P% (32.2%) on the season, so a bounce-back game on Wednesday night from three could be likely, but you should still expect the results to be disappointing.

Sacramento is 0-9 when shooting under 44% from the field. Who has a good defense that holds teams to 43.4% shooting this season? The Clippers, who rank sixth in opponent FG%, have held 12 of their 21 opponents under 44% this year.

The Clippers are just a much better defensive team that is capable of winning ugly if need be. The Kings are No. 28 in defensive rating, and the offense is too mediocre (No. 15 in offensive rating) to make up for it, hence the 8-14 record.

Prediction

The Kings are 1-4 ATS with a rest disadvantage and 0-12 SU when they do not score 110 points this season. I like the Clippers to play better defense and keep the score down in this one. Eight of Los Angeles’ 11 wins have come by at least eight points. I will trust the Clippers to cover for your NBA picks this Wednesday.

NBA Pick: Clippers -7.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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