Jazz vs. Grizzlies Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick

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Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies dunks the ball. Ethan Mito/Clarkson Creative/Getty Images/AFP

The Memphis Grizzlies are the most profitable NBA pick there is. Can they keep it up on Friday night when they host the Utah Jazz?

Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Friday, January 28, 2022 – 8:00 PM EST at FedExForum

The Memphis Grizzlies are for real. This is a true championship contender blossoming before our eyes, but the betting market hasn’t caught up yet – the Grizzlies are +3000 to win the championship on the NBA odds board, a distant No. 10 overall to the Brooklyn Nets (+300).

Old-school handicappers drool over teams like this. Did I mention the Grizzlies are the most profitable team in the league at 33-17 SU and 32-18 ATS? To be fair, the word “are” carries a lot of bad juju with it.

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Past performance does not guarantee future results; the Utah Jazz (30-19 SU, 21-26-2 ATS) have performed at a high level themselves, they’re +1200 to win the title, and they’re not just going to lay down when they meet Friday night at the Forum. We still like Memphis for your best bets, though, provided they open at –2.5 (or longer) on these shores as they have overseas.

Better Than Dame

The fact that FiveThirtyEight project Memphis to win by 4.5 points gives us confidence – and the requisite 2-point gap to invest more than just a token wager on the Grizz. The “small market” betting angle gets canceled out in this case because of Utah, and sadly, this bull run has to end sometime, but this is still a young team on the rise.

Maybe we haven’t reached the top yet. Let’s hope Ja Morant (plus-6.2 Box Plus/Minus at Basketball Reference) hasn’t peaked. He’s only 22, but he’s already putting up Damian Lillard while playing better defense for the most part.

Desmond Bane (plus-2.1 BPM) is 23, and quant darling Brandon Clarke (plus-4.4 BPM) is 25. Morant and Clarke are third-year players; Bane is a sophomore. This isn’t even their final form.


We pretty much know what we’re getting from Utah at this point. Donovan Mitchell (plus-3.7 BPM) has done very well to make it this far, but he’s a step below Morant, and he’s coming off a concussion that cost him the past five games – assuming he even plays on Friday, which is considered questionable at press time.

Rudy Gobert (strained left calf) won’t dress, according to reports; he leads the team at plus-5.3 BPM, and the Jazz is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in the games he’s recently sat out. To further complicate things for Utah if Mitchell doesn’t play, back-up guard Trent Forrest (minus-1.9 BPM) is questionable for this matchup with a sprained right ankle.

The Jazz still have former Memphis pivot Mike Conley (plus-3.5 BPM) to shoulder the burden, and both Bojan Bogdanovic (plus-0.3 BPM) and Joe Ingles (minus-0.1 BPM) recently returned to the lineup, but they’re still bringing a knife to a gunfight. Bet accordingly once those NBA lines hit the board and may the sphere be with you.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies -3.5 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Grizzlies -3.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.